The AI infrastructure build out already dominates credit market funding. Now Nvidia will effectively securitise its chips to its market though a panel of private capital markets firms that lend it credibility. The worry is complex and appealing deal structures will simply hide the risks inherent in AI – and increase the likelihood of a correlated crash when something inevitably breaks.

The market is under a glamour cast by Nvidia. It’s the most watched headline stock. In a perfect world, its position would mean there would be little to worry about, but US data and all the other market frictions are combining to challenge the market’s narrative – which is a long way of saying… THIS MARKET IS TOPPY.

Nvidia is a proxy for the global economy – said an idiot analyst. AI is terribly important because C-Suites think it is. The reality is AI will be messy, expensive and costly to implement. We’ll quickly discover it overpromised and underdelivers. Back to fundamentals.

There was a Judder Moment in AI last night. Microsoft’s numbers confirm the hype is played out - the reality is the AI everything rally is bleeding revenues and momentum. AI could see a cascading failure event bringing down startups, and triggering a reassessment of AI linked firms. Tesla – as the most hollow set of undelivered promises - is set to feel most pain.

There is nothing so dispiriting as dealing with a bank online. The experience will leave you frustrated and furious. Yet we all expect the AI revolution is going to absolutely change tech for the better. Wake up. Smell the Coffee. Prepare to be disappointed.

The markets expect Nvidia will bat it out the park… Unlimited joy and upside awaits! Is the pursuit of AI “maybe’s” overdone? There are plenty of real, positive and profitable investments out there – without the disappointment risk of having backed yet another hollow Tech pipedream.

The AI bubble is running out of steam… which may be a very apt metaphor. Value in AI is driven by supply scarcity, which will be addressed by competition and capacity. The next issue is how AI innovation is over-exaggerated – we will require much more powerful computational tools to create next level Intelligence.

Nvidia’s extraordinary rise comes from being the picks and shovels supplier to the AI revolution. It’s not just MegaTechs coat-tailing Nvidia that will win, but productivity gains from AI could counter the growing debt/gowth crisis in the West. AI is more complex than just a single stock.

In the film of the Magnificent Seven, only three of the gunslingers survive. Which of the Big Tech names will be left in the dust? And which are likely to survive?

Nvidia and Telsa trade on hopes and expectations, FOMO and huge PE multiples. They are very different investment propositions but reflect the bubble market. Maybe it’s time to revert to dull, boring, predictable returns in fixed income secured by real assets?