Sometimes you just have to laugh. The Tariff Judgement against Trump raises elevated Chaotic Tantrum risks in Treasuries, while markets fear what wobbles in private credit might conceal. Everything in markets are connected – when something cracks in credit, someone somewhere else will start screaming!

Did someone say Century Bond? What’s not to like about the bond market? Rates are going to fall! Everyone wants to buy credit (at historically tight spreads) and the biggest most successful firms on the planet are paying 70 cents over Treasuries for your money! What could possibly go wrong?

Many think Markets are set fair for the second half of 2023 – but what if a mighty depression is brewing out there in the ocean of corporate debt? I am looking at the glass (barometer for the non-nautical) falling and at the CLO market in particular. There may be a storm brewing.

In bonds there is pain as prices tumble – but that does not change the fundamentals of investing in bonds. The risk is rising bond yields will expose the dangerous over-valuations low rate distortion has caused across other financial-assets, perhaps causing more than a few bubbles to pop.