Stock markets feel like they are running out of momentum – but that should not lead to fears of a no-see-um crash, rather a more fundamental assessment of the reasons why? In the UK, Plan B – National Economic Suicide by winter Lockdowns – looks on the cards. And, despite all the wonders of Big Tech and promises about how much better it makes our lives – most of it is pretty pants.
The market is worrying about the potential of an October crash, but what might trigger it? Two suspects: a resurgent Coronavirus and/or a global supply chain cardiac triggering stagflation? And top tip from my father: teach your kids to Ski, Sail and play Tennis!
As markets shake off their summer slumbers, what should we be worrying about? Lots..! From real vs transitory inflation arguments, the long-term economic consequences of Covid, the future for Central Banking unable to unravel its Gordian knot of monetary experimentation, and the prospects for rising political instability in the US and Europe.
Fed Minutes hint at Taper this year, but markets are pricing for it not happening: a slowing global economy, competitive pressures, the market’s addiction to debt and Covid will all conspire to stop Central Banks tightening. They might be right.
The shocking return of the Taliban dominates the headlines. It has critical implications for markets. Biden’s loss of credibility creates many hurdles and could drive the US towards isolationism – bruised by yet another flawed foreign adventure. Meanwhile, markets struggle with inflation and climate consequences.
As Freedom Day in the UK approaches, just what are the risks? Rising infections, and more virulent and dangerous mutated variants could still put a kybosh on reopening. Are we doomed to a repeating cycle of lockdowns? And what could that mean for markets? Probably another opportunity..
Finally, proof Football is more deadly than Tennis. And, as the UK proudly climbs onboard the Gigafactory bandwagon, are we heading for a Hindenburg Moment?
A short digression on Covid, Dementia and Sir Alexander Fleming.
Markets are celebrating spring, rebirth and recovery. The problem is the pandemic is not over, and may continue to cast is baleful malice over markets for decades. Meanwhile… would you appoint an ESG-compliant, full-on Woke gender & diversity championing Head-hunter to find you the next killer quant-trader?