The debt ceiling crisis has lifted a cloud from markets, but we’re still looking for resolution on inflation, geopolitics and a host of other issues. Maybe the real issues are about valuations – which remain over-extraordinary.
Monday is the May Day Holiday, but the weather is pants and no one has any money anyway… There isn’t much on the horizon that is clear – hunker down for more months of uncertainty.
Big Tech is so yesterday. Prices peaked last year, but there are limited reasons to expect they will ever become so dominant again. They are too big, under the regulatory cosh, and increasingly under competitive pressure. They are heading the same way as the dinosaurs.
Big Tech “growth” stocks suffered a price-check this week as economic reality bit, but they face much more pressure than just short-term cost and sales problems. Long-Term, new businesses and opportunities are evolving to eat their lunch, and leave them behind.
Dismiss FOMO and Speculation! The markets will focus on fundamentals in 2022 – which means taking a long hard look at everything we think we know, and figuring out what ain’t necessarily so. Amazon is a case in point – just how deep is its moat, and what might revelations of an internal toxic culture do to its price?
We had a slew of spectacular Big Tech results this week, but has the time come to regulate them more closely to avoid increasingly monopolistic behaviour, and to protect the population from the pernicious effect of the manipulation of big data? It’s as much an argument about the role of the state as it is about the success of companies. There will be winners and losers.
It’s not what you know about value – it’s what the market believes that matters when it comes to price. Will Call My Agent win the streaming wars? And will widespread adoption fuel a massive boom in Socks… just the shills say has happened in Bitcoin?
