The market is full of noise, but the facts are more important. The data suggests slowdown is coming. The noise is getting louder as doubts around spending, bonds, inflation and economic slowdown mount. And to cap it all, a fight between Elon Musk and Donald Trump could massively destabilise US Politics.

Boeing is slowly climbing its hill towards recovery. The last few years saw the firm tumble on the back of a host of crises of its own making. It’s coming back together, but the question remains: can it remain relevant without a big capital pool to spend on developing the next generation of aircraft, in the face of new competition?

Boeing desperately needs to get it right. Over the next 20 years, global demand will be around 35,000 new aircraft. Supply is currently a duopoly of Boeing and Airbus. To avoid it becoming an Airbus monopoly (bad for everyone), Boeing’s new management need to completely reset the firm and focus back on fundamentals – which are people rather than numbers driven.

Boeing is my pick as the worst company on the planet. Its’ stock is down 30% this year. It has failed multiple corporate governance challenges, but is also a victim of QE over-easy monetary policy: ultra-low interest rates enabled its cost-accountant management to wreck the company. Can it recover?

Boeing is a lesson in broken capitalism. It’s latest safety catastrophe highlights multiple management failures. Things are set to get worse as the Global Economy realigns and the US turns isolationist. Who will eventually dominate air travel?

This week’s “shock” announcement of a major aero-engine maintenance crisis with RTX engines on Airbus Neo Narrowbodies is reverberating round the aircraft market. It pushes up the value of older aircraft – and will impact many airlines.

The news “green” Pratt & Whitney engines don’t work very well on new aircraft puts a whole new slant on the economics of airlines – favouring mid-life planes over less reliable, but oh-so-environmentally-more-friendly new ones..

Orders are piling up at the Paris Airshow, but fractured supply chains, labour shortages and engine problems means new aircraft deliveries are delayed for years. That’s opportunity, but also hints at new dynamics in terms of how the aviation sector develops – the Age of Cheap Flight may be over.

Aviation is booming. Airlines are buying planes. Passengers want to fly. There are just a few little problems... There aren’t enough planes. That makes Aircraft as an Alternative Asset a great investment opportunity.

Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 2nd 2023 – The End of [...]