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Recent Porridge

Where is China Going?
December 8, 2021
Evergrande will default, but the Chinese economy will probably avoid a property contagion crisis as the government becomes increasingly interventionist. Longer term, how will China evolve to cope with Covid, Growth and Demographics?Read More »
Lessons from Pearl Harbour and Future Threats
December 7, 2021
On the 80th anniversary of Pearl Harbour, it’s worth asking could it ever happen again? A conventional war over Ukraine is clearly a threat – but is it one the Russians would risk without first trying to significantly weaken the West’s resilience though a cyberstrike? As they sow, so would they reap.Read More »
Inflation. Will it? Won’t it?
December 6, 2021
Forget everything you think you know about inflation. It is not solely a consequence of “monetary phenomena”, but largely about the behaviour of crowds. That’s why it’s so dangerous to growth and markets.Read More »
Outrageous Predictions for 2022 look more likely than usual.
December 2, 2021
Saxo’s Outrageous Predictions for 2022 include a rain check on ESG fundamentalism holding back fossil fuel investments necessary to enable energy transition to new reliable renewable sources. It’s one of these things that has to happen, or else energy instability will crush economies.Read More »
Market Judders As a Bleak Winter Begins
December 1, 2021
Did you feel markets judder when Powell spoke? The mood has changed as markets wake up to the danger Central Banks might just start doing their jobs. As Winter begins, Europe faces a bleak energy crisis of its own making. My solution? Buy a generator!Read More »

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