Short porridge this morning as I’m angry and in a rush. As the UK  government flounders in yet another storm of sleaze and corruption accusations, its venality and crass opportunism appears to be spreading through the economy, and is likely to hold back the recovery of personal and business travel.

The risks of Plan B and a further Covid Lockdown are multiplying. It will clearly impact markets, but the real economic effects of Covid combined with energy costs, supply chains and bleak company earnings forecasts may be pushing us towards stagflation anyway.

Stock markets feel like they are running out of momentum – but that should not lead to fears of a no-see-um crash, rather a more fundamental assessment of the reasons why? In the UK, Plan B – National Economic Suicide by winter Lockdowns – looks on the cards. And, despite all the wonders of Big Tech and promises about how much better it makes our lives – most of it is pretty pants.

The market is worrying about the potential of an October crash, but what might trigger it? Two suspects: a resurgent Coronavirus and/or a global supply chain cardiac triggering stagflation?

And top tip from my father: teach your kids to Ski, Sail and play Tennis!

As markets shake off their summer slumbers, what should we be worrying about? Lots..! From real vs transitory inflation arguments, the long-term economic consequences of Covid, the future for Central Banking unable to unravel its Gordian knot of monetary experimentation, and the prospects for rising political instability in the US and Europe.

Fed Minutes hint at Taper this year, but markets are pricing for it not happening: a slowing global economy, competitive pressures, the market’s addiction to debt and Covid will all conspire to stop Central Banks tightening. They might be right.

Markets and data have been posting strong numbers, but all around are warnings on future outlook problems. Politicians are keen to claim victory over the pandemic, but the science increasingly points to Covid becoming a very long-lived problem and long-term threat to global activity

Its “Freedom Day” in the UK, but it feels same as, same as. Bond markets look stressed, but freak weather is raising the probability government intervention dwarfing the scale of the pandemic may become necessary. There will not be a gradual, ordered progression to a new higher temperature climate.  Instead… the reality looks like high-cost chaotic freak-weather events becoming increasingly common.  The cost could hit trillions.

As Freedom Day in the UK approaches, just what are the risks? Rising infections, and more virulent and dangerous mutated variants could still put a kybosh on reopening. Are we doomed to a repeating cycle of lockdowns? And what could that mean for markets? Probably another opportunity..

Finally, proof Football is more deadly than Tennis. And, as the UK proudly climbs onboard the Gigafactory bandwagon, are we heading for a Hindenburg Moment?