It’s become clear this week the market outlook has changed utterly – higher rates are now the new normal, and that will have consequences on demand at a time when supply remains in flux. Meanwhile, global instability is rising. Markets and populations need to understand reality – while campuses tear themselves appart it is Iran driving the horror in the Middle East, but good luck explaining it to your Keffiyeh wearing kids.

Markets will breathe easy if Israel forgoes retaliation for Iran’s apparently failed drone strike, but Iran remains the fundamental crisis at the heart of the Middle East. Peace and prosperity will remain elusive while Iran plots regional instability.

Markets have not sold off on renewed Middle East conflict, but the geopolitical faultlines are being reinforced as it become clear this is war the US and Israel are fated never to win.

Who wins from atrocity in Gaza? UK wages are still rising, but the threat is no longer wage spiral inflation, but job losses and a crash landing as the lag effects of rates rises, inflation and consumer spending create a perfect slough of despond.

We need to be aware of the consequences of political failure and populism. What’s happening in the Middle East is a warning of how politics go wrong. We should pay close attention.