Blain’s Morning Porridge – October 15^th, 2026:  Donald Trump has betrayed the West

“Be certain that those who will betray you once will betray you again.”

Ukraine was stabbed in the back yesterday. Its defenders found their access to Starshield and Intel on incoming missile strikes suddenly blocked. Trump is saying nothing – but it’s increasingly clear the orders came from POTUS. Trump is furious that Zelensky refuses to surrender Ukraine to his good chum Putin. It represents a new nadir of the Trump presidency.

LINK TO PODCAST

Key Takeaways:

• Trust in America has taken a global battering after Trump used his Kill-Switch to leave Ukraine defenceless. The alleged withdrawal of Intel and Starlink support is seen as a fundamental breach of trust by NATO allies.
• It will have massive implications on future working relationships and warfighting coordination within NATO functions – European nations will never be entirely certain the US will honour its commitments.
• Trump thought he would get away with sacrificing Ukraine for a short-term bolster to MAGA’s electoral prospects in the Midterms – pretending the deal with Russia would bring down diesel prices. (It will benefit his family through the deal Jared Kushner has struck to buy Lukoil!)
• Instead, Trump has further unravelled the USA’s geopolitical credibility. It will have market consequences as demand for US weapons, financial services, and confidence in the dollar and Treasury market slumps as Europe faces up to America as “unreliable.”
• Trump appears to have taken the decisions to deal with Russia, and to deny Ukraine intel and Starshield, without reference to his cabinet or military advisors – creating speculation he is either unfit for office, or even a Russian asset.
• The coming midterms may now become a vote on Trump’s leadership and judgement. American’s can decide if what is good for Trump is good for them, or what is good for freedom and democracy is better for America in the long run.

I don’t think I have ever been this angry writing a Morning Porridge.

The honourable American president, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, was consumed with fury when he told Congress that Dec 7^th, 1941, was “a day that will live in infamy” after the Japanese sneak attack on Pearl Harbour which killed 2403 Americans – including 68 civilians.

We don’t know how many Ukrainian civilians and troops died in the last two days on the back of President Trump demonstrating America’s kill-switch.

It is increasingly clear The President of the United States ordered the US military to hold back critical intelligence on incoming ballistic missile strikes, and to switch off Starshield, the military derivative of Starlink, a system that Ukraine is contractually bound to pay for. (Yep, for all he boasts about how much the USA has given Ukraine, the Ukrainians pay for in twice – in dollars and in blood.)

The Starshield switch-off left Ukrainian forces fighting for the survival of their country effectively blind.  Ukrainian forces were stopped from taking any offensive action and were unable to defend even against the most basic Russian Drones raining down on population centres and energy infrastructure nodes. So much for Russia agreeing to an energy ceasefire.

Trump betrayed Ukraine on the most callous scale. It was a stab in the back of a democratic and free nation resisting an authoritarian invader. The actions of the US President were beyond despicable and should be a clear warning to every other nation that he, (and therefore his nation), can no longer be trusted. It was financial skullduggery of the worst kind – while Trump’s golf buddy Witkoff and son-in-law Kushner counted the billions they will make from deals to acquire Russian energy, Ukrainians died because the Sirens weren’t sounding.

I was at a dinner last night in London, speaking to industrialists from some of the largest firms in the UK, and they all had stories to tell about their dealings with the new America. Trust has gone.

I predict yesterday, October 14^th, 2026, will go down in history as the day the American Age ended. Not in defeat, or economic collapse, but in act of callous and self-serving treachery by its leader.

Through our colleagues connected to Spitfire Strategic we learnt how suddenly Ukrainians on the front lines of the Donbass and in Kiev discovered their system didn’t work. The shutdown came with no warning. Now, there is a rising suspicion the Russian’s knew about it before Kiev did. They were ready and prepared to launch mass attacks knowing Ukrainian anti-drone defences had been switched off on the whim of the capricious, demented, greedy man-child in Washington.

Yesterday saw some frantic back-peddling among shell-shocked Republicans. They’ve been deeply uneasy since Trump announced his diesel deal with his good friend Putin last week. The deal is in direct conflict with a 2022 law that bans the import of fuel from Russia and comes less than a month since strict new “Lindsey Graham” sanctions on Russian Energy were agreed by Congress. Interestingly every single Republican retiring ahead of the Midterms – often pushed out for not demonstrating sufficient arse-licking sycophancy to Trump – has criticised Trump for his willingness to support Putin and Russia against Ukraine as a controversion of everything that America is supposed to stand for.

Elon Mush did a spectacular reverse ferret yesterday.

Over the weekend he was in full agreement with Trump, telling his followers on X that Zelensky should go, and that the Ukrainian President had gone “too far” … (in what respect? Not surrendering his nation as per Trump’s demands?) 18 months ago Musk told the world: “My Starlink system is the backbone of the Ukrainian Army. Their front line would collapse if I turned it off.” In that respect, for once Musk was telling something close to the truth. He went on to describe the war as a “stalemate that Ukraine will inevitably lose.” Not so – with proper support Ukraine and the West can inflict a humiliating military and economic defeat of Putin, which would likely see America re-assume its undisputed leadership of the West.

Won’t happen under Trump. Who knows what Kompromat the Kremlin has on him?

Yesterday Musk read the writing on the wall, listening as a groundswell of revulsion spurred even Trump loyalists to complain. Musk rebuked the President – saying the decision to switch off Starshield would have been taken by POTUS.

You can understand why sitting Republicans, particularly those facing fights for their seats in Congress and The Senate next month, are nervous. They know stopping Ukraine from responding to Russian attacks on civilians and energy infrastructure won’t take a brass cent off Diesel prices (which spiked over $200 a barrel at one point yesterday). They can lie to the electorate that its Zelensky taking out Russian refineries, but they know the instability in oil is 100% due to Trump’s stupid and ill-considered war that he triggered against Iran.

Yesterday I was shown a Republican analysis of how the Midterms will play. It suggests that polling error means the race is much closer than predicted – with a strong likelihood the Reds will hold the Senate with 52 senators. It suggests the reason the Democrats are apparently winning is because the Republicans are losing the arguments – rather than solid Democrat policies. The massive War chests assembled by Trump and Republican PACs are helping swing the arguments through a media blitz.

If only American voters knew the truth about their president and his unhealthy relationship with Moscow… I wonder who will blow the whistle?

The Iran war has now metastized into a full regional conflict with the Houthi’s threatening Saudi, and Gulf States quietly paying Iran transit fees to ship their oil through Hormuz. Trust in American military might among the Gulf States has been shattered – where America once promised protection from its massive regional bases, there now stand shattered buildings and empty, wrecked hangers. Iran may be down and bloody, but the opinion on the ground is they win by not losing.

The Republicans are increasingly waking up to the existential threat Trump now poses. The now perceive a sad, demented old man acting off his own base instincts. Trump announced his decision to do the Diesel Deal on Truth Social moments after completing yet another marathon 90-minute call with Putin – he did not discuss his plan to do an illegal deal with his cabinet, or military advisors.

Thus far Donald Trump has not commented on his reasons for betraying Ukraine. He will blame it on subordinates and lambast Zelensky again. Zelensky has already washed his hands of the man. He was treated to a full honour guard in Downing St yesterday – something denied to Trump. He was also welcomed by the King in the palace as a dear friend – when Trump last visited the guards scanned him to see what cutlery he’d nicked!

Trump will continue to repeat the lie that doing a deal with Russia on diesel will cut the fuel bills of US citizens. He will blame Europe for not doing more to protect the Ukrainians killed before the sirens wailed by the unrestrained Russian missile attacks.

Next month Americans will have the chance to vote on their government.

• Do they vote on the basis anything that is good for America – As Donald Trump sees it – supersedes all else?
• Or do they remember that America’s position as the World’s hegemonic power rests on its reputation to defend law, order, and freedom?

Will they remember how American exceptionalism has been built on the shoulders of its allies which financed the US military industrial complex for decades through arms purchases, supported US capital markets through their investments, financed the US economy and infrastructure through the Treasury markets, and backed the strength of the US dollar as thedefacto basis of global trade.

All these things are lost… like tears in the rain.

As for the price of diesel… it’s all a terrible lie. We know Russian exports to the USA will barely change the dial on diesel prices. Trump is scrabbling around looking for any excuse to hide the real reason for the exorbitant price of fuel and rising inflation – it’s entirely due to Trump’s War on Iran…

Out of time, and back to the day job…

Bill Blain

Author of the Morning Porridge
CEO Windshift Capital
Advisor – Spitfire Strategic Capital

Meanwhile, don’t forget about my new book: The Battle for Hamble

You can read a review on the Society of Professional Economist’s website here.