Trump dominates the headlines but watch what’s happening in the bond markets. Yesterday Japan bond yields juddered a warning about political competency risks, but also how rising geopolitical and conflict risks are resetting investor expectations. When the bond market speaks, you ought to listen. Plus, Air Force One, Bitcoin and Howard Lutnick.

Japan’s Bond market may prove the dead canary in the coal mine warning of an imminent systemic global bond crisis. Although US stocks have staged a “Terminal Lucidity” recovery – it may prove unsustainable as the shocks start to mount, and Japanese liquidity melts away.

After the Japan bubble burst in 1989, the economy and stocks suffered three lost decades. Now the Nikkei has (almost) rehit its 34 year high. Is Japan back on track or is it just the weaker yen?

Japan says it is not tightening? Nope. It “eased” yield curve control which is normalisation by any other name. It will have profound global investment flow consequences. Time to buy a new copy of the Japan Company Handbook and put your buying boots on.

In Bonds There is Truth – but until Real bond yields turn positive they remain financially repressive. If Central Banks “pivot” from tightening rates to address inflation too early, markets will remain fundamentally distorted.