Blain’s Morning Porridge 23rd October 2026: With unlimited wealth comes unconstrained power.
“I am going to make you an offer you can’t refuse.”
Elon Musk is the richest man in history. With great wealth comes great power and influence. How wisely is Musk wielding that power? Switching off Starlink in Ukraine, threatening Europe with “devastating consequences” on satellite broadband, and whatever deals he doing on the regulation of his companies all beg closer examination. He raises questions about his accountability, and whose interests he serves.
Key Takeaways:
- Extreme wealth is no longer confined to domestic power – Elon Musk shows it can be wielded on the geopolitical stage. His control of Starlinkt, and dollar political funding power is not balanced by accountability.
- Starlink is now shown to be a Strategic Resource. Musk has demonstrated its power and that he controls it – and it’s in his and America’s interest to limit others from having it.
- Europe needs to build its technological independence from the USA. Digital and Space sovereignty is critical, especially as Trump, Musk, the Art of the Deal and America First collide in the new America’s stance to the world.
- Tesla and Space X will shortly merge, giving Musk an enormous payoff, further increasing his wealth without having to deliver on the targets once set him. It deserves closer oversight by government.
- The points discussed this morning are opinions. Feel free to believe whatever you still do about Musk.
It’s Friday, it’s blowing a hooley here in Hamble, and I only got back in the early hours this morning after piloting Thunderbird 1 (the Lexus) on a mission to rescue She-who-is-Mrs-Blain from Basingrad because all the trains to the South Coast were shut down last night… I ended up with a car full of other people similarly trapped and drove them all home. (Made me happy, but there were seriously scary amounts of rain and wind as the first storm of the winter hit…)
I therefore declare this Friday a Rant Day… and my target is Elon Musk.
At $900 bln the World’s Richest Man is worth more than three times what comparative pauper Jeff Bezos musters. His wealth gives him power and influence he’s increasingly wielding in an unconstrained fashion. He reminds me of a toddler given a delicate toy… I fear Musk is only just beginning to explore the bounds of his power. We got clues as to where that is heading this week…
The $450 million Musk has given to the GOP on the US Midterms, seeking to buy his very own senator in his “home” state of Texas, isn’t even a rounding error on his net worth. That the US political system is up for auction has raised barely a ripple of surprise around the globe…
It’s still unclear who switched off StarShield – the military version of Starlink that Musk once said was the backbone of Ukraine’s fight against Russia. Last week Musk tweeted on X, his personal megaphone, pressing the Off Switch had been a decision of POTUS, the President of the United States. Yesterday, Trump said he’d called Musk telling him to switch it back on – clearly indicating Musk was the guilty party. (Dang, I’d bet $50 Hegseth would get shouldered with the blame…)
The fact we still don’t know who made the call… but it does makes you wonder why Musk might be the guilty party. (Hundreds of Ukrainian civilians have been killed and injured because of the switch off. Someone should be held to account.)
The Ukrainians say full Starlink services have not yet been restored, and can’t be accessed over Russia, which is allowing previously interdicted Russian logistics and troops to pour into the front lines, utterly changing the threat levels of new attacks. Moreover, the Ukrainian high command suspect Russian generals are fully informed on how they can take best advantage of Musk’s kill-switch.
Why would Musk turn off the StarShield system? As a favour to Trump in his efforts to browbeat Zelensky into a surrender, or… to demonstrate to the Global Powers just how powerful his Starlink proposition is…? Yep… sometimes the obvious is just too obvious. It’s straight out a Bond villain playbook.
The lesson from Starlink in Ukraine is the absolute imperative to own Space – and build out the digital and satellite capabilities necessary to avoid being held hostage to foreign powers. Ukraine has learnt the lesson. This week Europe saw it’s a power the USA is not afraid to wield. Its another sad proof of the reality Europe and the USA are no longer aligned. Europe needs to spend money to increase satellite launches and build capacity.
Even as Musk switched off Starlink to favour Russia on the battlespace, the EU was also under attack. This week the US Ambassador to the EU threatened “devasting economic retaliation” if Europe attempts to enforce “digital sovereignty” by restricting the licensing of Mobile Satellite Service spectrum band (MSS). SpaceX has acquired US MSS licenses and expects the same in Europe, while Europe intends to reserve 2/3 of MMS for domestic firms and government.
Starlink pulling the service in Ukraine is a very clear “Horses Head in the Bed” moment. It’s a warning to Europe what happens if Musk and Starlink don’t get the licenses they need and what might happen should Europe attempt to set up its own alternative to Starlink.
Now… let’s be blunt here…
I should probably not write about Elon Musk. I suggest readers do not pay too much attention when I slam Tesla as overvalued, or question his actions at Space-X because I am biased against him – conflicted as a compliance officer might say. Moreover, in market terms I am inevitably wrong. In fact, any market analysis will sadly show that if I say sell, then that’s the point to go long Musk.
He has become a dangerous obsession. I have umpteen well-thumbed books in my library describing his shady dealings, his dodgy business approaches, his psychological hang-ups, his unresolved daddy-issues, and all the rest. I’ve been writing about Musk for over 15 years. At first, I was positive – reckoning the remarkable new Tesla Roadster was the start of something really interesting, despite how its limited range left us needing a rescue on a truck.
Today… I simply can’t square the number of people who think Musk the most influential man that’s ever lived and worship him at the altar of the market. Me? Not so much. I think he’s a complete …..
The Thai Cave Rescue did it for me. The way he slandered the diver leading efforts to rescue trapped kids tipped it for me. I sold all my Tesla stock and kissed goodbye to a fortune if I’d just held my nose and looked the other way. I might be poorer, but I am happy not to be tainted. (She-who-is? Not so much…)
My mistake was to assume the rest of the market would see what I saw. Nope. While I did the maths to prove Tesla’s improbable survival, ascendency, borrowings and sales numbers made it unsustainable, the market’s greedy eyes went cha-ching. I’ve proved repeatedly it can’t fly. Like a bumble bee… it does.
Musk kept on smiling, doling out the snake-oil, and steered it through to today’s insane and improbable valuation. Despite being a relatively tiny part of the auto sector, Tesla is worth a multiple of its largest and more profitable competitors.
Many folk think Elon’s secret sauce is his engineering brilliance. Nope. Despite clearly being on multiple personality disorder scales, he knows how to play people and make them dance to his tune. His engineering skill is to identify a need or problem to solve – and motivating people to solve it. He even got President Trump to sing along, for a while. (I suspect Musk has done a new deal with Trump re the regulation of his regulation heavy Space X and Tesla mainstreams, and to open doors to his other brain implant and the Boring Company side-gigs.)
Tesla will inevitably be merged with Space-X. Sooner rather than later. There will be stock market games to be played around it happening… It will happen because the answer to the question: What will Tesla be worth in a few years’ time? Clue: it will be a smaller number than it is today.
This week Tesla announced declining sales – at a time when high diesel costs are pushing everyone into EVs (we just bought an all-electric car to use alongside our hybrid) – but Tesla never made the long list. EVs are now a very competitive space as the Chinese outcompete on price, and everyone else now builds more interesting and better cars.
Ask yourself a question… When did some stock analyst last try to persuade you Robotaxis are going to be worth gazillions? Nope. Nobody has any real interest in Robotaxis any more… I suspect they will be a core to the new SpaceX business mix as solar panels are to Tesla… While the car co is still persuading gullible car buyers to pay up for the full auto-driving package, why bother building a $250k supercar for a machine to drive? If Musk is ever going to sell his Optimus robots, they may as well be branded Space-X…
“I do think there is a lot of merit to combining the companies,” Musk said this week. Which means Tesla is done. Do you sell now, or do you wait to see what the merger valuations are? As Musk is the biggest shareholder – it will likely be significant, no doubt paid in Space X script so it can spend all the money its finally making by building datacentres for other folk to use.
Oh, you thought SpaceX was a rocket company. Sure… just like Tesla is defined by its power-walls. SpaceX makes its money by building very expensive data centres and equipping them with very powerful computers, which they then rent to other users. What happens when demand for compute falls because the AI bubble bursts, or a new way of doing AI cheaper is found (like building your own!)
If Musk merges Tesla into SpaceX, he stands to make billions from his stock rewards vesting. It’s unlikely shareholders will object – not after massive bonus he tried to secure a few years ago – which the board recommended to keep him “interested” in working for the firm.
Rockets, space datacentres, stuffing ballot boxes, and holding nations to ransom with his weaponised Starlink are his main interests now. There is a polite fiction that Musk is a “conflicted party” to the expected merger, but he’ll be setting the pace.
For the record, speaking to a US chum yesterday, they raised an important issue: Starshield is run by the US military – only the Military can switch it on or off. US military officers and men take an oath of allegiance to the Constitution, not the President. Turning off a critical service to a US ally in support of Russia would seem to conflict with the spirit of the Constitution. Therefore, any order to do so would be illegal… but no one else appears to be asking that question.
Perhaps they should. If my chum was a cynic… he might have suggested Pete Hegseth got a gold star from Donald for completing his mission to replace competent generals with ones loyal to the President. Might be time to watch 7 Days in May…
Out of time and got a day job to do. Have a peaceful weekend.
Bill Blain
Author of the Morning Porridge
CEO Windshift Capital
Advisor – Spitfire Strategic Capital
Meanwhile, don’t forget about my new book: The Battle for Hamble
You can read a review on the Society of Professional Economist’s website here.
