Black Swans - Blain's Morning Porridge

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Ding Dong, Inflation is dead… but probably isn’t so don’t get your hopes up yet…
August 11, 2022
The pace of US CPI inflation moderated slightly, but it’s too early for the market to conclude rate hikes are over. There are many imbalances still to resolve – especially in consumer credit. Meanwhile, the new UK premier’s clumsy attempts to blame the BOE raise questions.Read More »
The Geopolitical No-See-Um threat posed by Chips may be less than that posed by Trump.
August 10, 2022
Chips are a critical component of global supply chains – there are significant geopolitical risks inherent in the concentration of semi-conductor production in Taiwan. However, an even bigger geopolitical risk may have been triggered by the FBI raiding Trump’s lair in Mar-a-Lago.Read More »
Confusing Markets: be confident when others are fearful…
August 8, 2022
So many contradictions abound in current markets, but it’s possible to cut through the noise to discern some probable direction. The old adage of being confident while others are fearful looks one way to approach the current confusion.Read More »
Transition Hopes & Confessions of an ESG heretic
August 5, 2022
Biden’s Tax and Climate Bill is the closest thing to a grown-up energy transition plan we’ve seen in the West. There is a significant risk ESG fundamentalism trips up efforts to reach carbon neutrality – but there are signs pragmatism will win out.Read More »
BP Stock Buyback – a missed opportunity, and why buybacks distort capitalism.
August 4, 2022
BP will use some of its windfall Ukraine Oil Spike profits to fund a stock buy-back. Stock buy-backs are appropriate is some limited circumstances, but generally they distort the way capitalism is supposed to work, undermining good companies and sound corporate governance.Read More »

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