Occasionally the Morning Porridge strikes a lucky insight on markets – this morning here are some thoughts on how 2022 markets and events may or may not develop. If they occur I shall hail myself an investment genius. If not, can we quietly forget them?
Inflation is the market’s theme today. Markets expect it, but are they prepared? Inflation doesn’t necessarily spell disaster, but it will force change in the way we think about markets – and Tech will likely be the sector that feels it most!
If there is common theme to some of the market’s speculative bubbles its their thin supporting veneers of fake credibility and plausible deniability. Trump’s Social Media empire, Bitcoin and Evergrande – all share a core of fundamental emptiness.
Stock markets feel like they are running out of momentum – but that should not lead to fears of a no-see-um crash, rather a more fundamental assessment of the reasons why? In the UK, Plan B – National Economic Suicide by winter Lockdowns – looks on the cards. And, despite all the wonders of Big Tech and promises about how much better it makes our lives – most of it is pretty pants.
The inflation/deflation debate continues to roll thin summer markets, but the bigger issues are probably elsewhere. What’s happening to markets as they become increasingly consensus led, and focused more on compliance than sentiment?
The collapse of the Super-League Football coup is a great illustration of just how self-delusional big money can be. After delusion comes acceptance, which is what Netflix faces as post-covid subscription growth slows in an increasingly crowded Streaming Wars space. It won’t kill the company, but will refocus investors on the depth of its’ moat and profitability. The same process is likely to be repeated across markets as delusional myths unravel.
Europe’s plans for a €1 trillion bond programme will create a single US Treasury scale market, but who agreed it? The big risks are the imperfect non-democracy’s funding programme will magnify political volatility, while empowering bad political deals.
Seaspiracy is a shocking, flawed, yet critical film. It should set the market thinking about what sustainability really means, addressing how we skirt the real issues on climate change and environmental degredation. It should provide a much-needed kick up the a**e to box-ticking ESG investment stupidity.
It’s not what you know about value – it’s what the market believes that matters when it comes to price. Will Call My Agent win the streaming wars? And will widespread adoption fuel a massive boom in Socks… just the shills say has happened in Bitcoin?
Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 2 2020: Apple Bonds hide a secret.. “Adam ate the Apple, and our teeth still ache.” Yesterday Apple launched a new $14 bln multi-tranche bond deal, raising new debt up to 40 years. It was a…