CoronaVirus Timeline

How the Virus Crisis Unfolded - as described in the Morning Porridge.

Direct quotes in italics 

6/01/2020

What Does 2020 hold in store

Emerging theme of the year: Looks like markets are going higher!

6/01/2020

What Does 2020 hold in store

 The Morning Porridge warns?: 

“[Collective political inconsistency, overly-exuberant markets, and natural disaster] are all trending in the ...

Emerging theme of the year: Looks like markets are going higher!

8/01/2020

Gold

Zero signs of risk, but lots of people talking about gold if risks were to rise..

8/01/2020

Gold

“Yesterday I was chatting to my commodities colleague, Ashley Booell. If it builds a “proper foundation” there, then a $2000 scenario is pos...

Zero signs of risk, but lots of people talking about gold if risks were to rise..

13/01/2020

What Trade Agreement? Italian Bond flu?

As the market hi-fived on the supposed trade agreement, the new virus attracted zero attention.

13/01/2020

What Trade Agreement? Italian Bond flu?

“Maybe we should be thinking about the big risks of 2020. I reckon it’s going to be bonds. What’s the likely trigger? A misstep by central b...

As the market hi-fived on the supposed trade agreement, the new virus attracted zero attention.

20/01/2020

Reasons to be nervous about market?

Technical charts were beginging to look scary of a dangerous top developing - I listed Reasons to be Fearful (part 2)

20/01/2020

Reasons to be nervous about market?

  

“6) Is the “No-See-Um event” risk elevated – clue: you never know? “We can talk about potential trigger points from the stock market below...

Technical charts were beginging to look scary of a dangerous top developing - I listed Reasons to be Fearful (part 2)

21/01/2020

First Mention of Virus

And so it begins

21/01/2020

First Mention of Virus

  

“Bloomberg breaks the story: "Fourth Person Dies of China Virus"

And so it begins

More Events

Coronavirus Timeline

22/01/2020

Virus suddenly at top of market concerns.. How bad can it get? Is this the long expected No-See-Um?

The Chinese first reported virus on 31st December. As news emerges of virus - it becomes clear we are in catch up mode.

22/01/2020

Virus suddenly at top of market concerns.. How bad can it get? Is this the long expected No-See-Um?

  

“The market should be paying attention to Medical Staff being infected – a clear sign of how infectious this thing could be. Thus far it l...

The Chinese first reported virus on 31st December. As news emerges of virus - it becomes clear we are in catch up mode.

24/01/2020

Oil identified as second No-See-Um Threat

Global oil prices come under focus. The virus gets a name - COVID-19

24/01/2020

Oil identified as second No-See-Um Threat

  

“Oil has trucked down through the week. Other assets: stocks, bonds, dollar and gold haven’t done much.. but could they yet shock us? Why ...

Global oil prices come under focus. The virus gets a name - COVID-19

27/01/2020

Potential China Economic Damage identified

In less than one week Coronavirus had become the dominant story. While much of the market was dismissing it as just a flu, and wondering why there was such concern, the Porridge identified the risks from China..

27/01/2020

Potential China Economic Damage identified

  

  

“In the face of the clinical unknows and the defensive response of governments, we are looking at the real economic consequence of over-...

In less than one week Coronavirus had become the dominant story. While much of the market was dismissing it as just a flu, and wondering why there was such concern, the Porridge identified the risks from China..

28/01/2020

Second Level Sector Damage becomes apparent

It soon becomes apparent the virus will not only cause sector specific damage, but damage underlying sentiment

28/01/2020

Second Level Sector Damage becomes apparent

    

“Coronavirus – it’s having real damaging effects on the regional and global economy. The immediate losers include the airlines, luxury g...

It soon becomes apparent the virus will not only cause sector specific damage, but damage underlying sentiment

29/01/2020

Virus = Economic Plague

2 risks - the virus and the consequences of economic policy and action - rising risk and uncertainty

29/01/2020

Virus = Economic Plague

   

“I am concerned Wuhan flu should not be lightly discounted. The numbers appear to show its spreading faster than anything previous like S...

2 risks - the virus and the consequences of economic policy and action - rising risk and uncertainty

More Events

Coronavirus Timeline

31/01/2020

Did we just miss the recession trigger?

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Recession threats become apparent, but many politicians, including Trump, dismiss it as Fake News

31/01/2020

Did we just miss the recession trigger?

  

“The Wuhan Coronavirus may or may not be a global killer. But it is now nailed on to trigger a global slowdown or recession. Global Stock ...

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Recession threats become apparent, but many politicians, including Trump, dismiss it as Fake News

10/02/2020

Record Stock Prices Miss the Reality

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Despite the increasingly grim news out of China, the market melts-up!

10/02/2020

Record Stock Prices Miss the Reality

  

“The bulls that took markets to new records are not that concerned with the very real economic consequences we are now seeing in China. Th...

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Despite the increasingly grim news out of China, the market melts-up!

11/02/2020

V or L Shaped Recovery

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I suggest buying gold or treasuries

11/02/2020

V or L Shaped Recovery

  

“The expression of the week, (or is it prayer of the week?), is “V-Shaped recovery”. It’s the hope the Chinese economy will simply shrug o...

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I suggest buying gold or treasuries

13/02/2020

What is keeping market so blase?

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Only thing keeping markets high is expectation of central bank and political support

13/02/2020

What is keeping market so blase?

  

  

“The fact stocks and bonds have pretty much discounted Covid19 has been the action of a market high to the rafters on bubbles, implausib...

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Only thing keeping markets high is expectation of central bank and political support

17/02/2020

Narrative shifts towards containment as the reality bites

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Governments start to notice fewer tourists on the streets

17/02/2020

Narrative shifts towards containment as the reality bites

  

   

“As a result of desperate efforts by the authorities, the narrative is beginning to shift - we’re likely to see the discussion move fro...

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Governments start to notice fewer tourists on the streets

More Events

Coronavirus Timeline

20/02/2020

Market expects extraordinary Fiscal Policy to support markets and ameliorate economic damage

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As the effect begin to be perceived - Trump tells us it will vanish in April.

20/02/2020

Market expects extraordinary Fiscal Policy to support markets and ameliorate economic damage

  

My guess is we’ll see Equity downside limited by the anticipation of central bank support and accommodation to avoid a complete market mel...

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As the effect begin to be perceived - Trump tells us it will vanish in April.

24/02/2020

Market expects extraordinary Fiscal Policy to support markets and ameliorate economic damage

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Markets start to anticipate the likely damage and policy responses

24/02/2020

Market expects extraordinary Fiscal Policy to support markets and ameliorate economic damage

    

  The reality is the Coronavirus Covid19 remains primarily an economic event 

The economic damage in terms of cancelled tourist trips to ...

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Markets start to anticipate the likely damage and policy responses

24/02/2020

Risk of Authorities missing and doing too little rises..

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First, Second and Third Order effects become apparent - do global governments get it?

24/02/2020

Risk of Authorities missing and doing too little rises..

    

“If you think this blows over in just a few months, and we are going to get a nice V-Shaped recovery – then good luck. 

There are second ...

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First, Second and Third Order effects become apparent - do global governments get it?

02/03/2020

Does a Virus Dead Cat Bounce?

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As the market copes with first of multiple crashes - is it a buying opportunity or something more destructive?

02/03/2020

Does a Virus Dead Cat Bounce?

  

“The questions are legion, but it’s possible to figure out a likely crisis roadmap round the following questions:

· How effective will glob...

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As the market copes with first of multiple crashes - is it a buying opportunity or something more destructive?

04/03/2020

Fed Emergency Rate Cut fails to impress

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Fed cuts by 50 bp and the market sells off - first proof the market is loosing faith in central bank's ability to contain the economic damage.

04/03/2020

Fed Emergency Rate Cut fails to impress

    

“There is still denial across the City about the Coronavirus panic.

A) If your question is: Why is the market panicking about a virus whi...

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Fed cuts by 50 bp and the market sells off - first proof the market is loosing faith in central bank's ability to contain the economic damage.

More Events

Coronavirus TIMELINE

10/03/2020

Crisis escalates in Italy plus an Oil Crisis

10 days after the virus first seen in Italy - its a crisis. Plus, new oil crisis from Saudi/Russia spat. Major Market Crash ensues..

10/03/2020

Crisis escalates in Italy plus an Oil Crisis

  

You can’t spend and promise yourself out of a natural disaster, and yesterday’s crash was entirely predictable. 

We know the virus is sprea...

10 days after the virus first seen in Italy - its a crisis. Plus, new oil crisis from Saudi/Russia spat. Major Market Crash ensues..

11/03/2020

Show Me the Plan

Sadly - there is no plan...

11/03/2020

Show Me the Plan

  

  

“Suddenly, the virus has coalesced into crisis. Now we find ourselves at the epicentre of a massive and expanding economic conflaguratio...

Sadly - there is no plan...

12/03/2020

America Waking UP

Is it too late...

12/03/2020

America Waking UP

      

Coronavirus will be the defining event of his presidency come November’s election – and he could be exposed as a blusterer who led the...

Is it too late...

13/03/2020

Faith in the Authorities starts to crumble

Is it too late...

13/03/2020

Faith in the Authorities starts to crumble

  

Markets faith in the ability of Governments and the Authorities – particularly Trump and the ECB – to provide cover, has been shattered. T...

Is it too late...

16/03/2020

Fed's Second Rate Cut - Time to look at opportunities?

The market ends up even lower. Panic, Fear and sentiment bust. Market moves from buying the dips to selling rallies and then in to beat the margin calls..

16/03/2020

Fed's Second Rate Cut - Time to look at opportunities?

  

  

Whatever Donald Trump hoped for from the Fed, the emergency measures are not about supporting markets. They are squarely aimed at ensuri...

The market ends up even lower. Panic, Fear and sentiment bust. Market moves from buying the dips to selling rallies and then in to beat the margin calls..

More Events

Coronavirus Timeline

18/03/2020

Too Late to save the markets.. save the economy and spend money on health!

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As Markets are pummeled, the blame game begins.

18/03/2020

Too Late to save the markets.. save the economy and spend money on health!

  

“This crisis is not really about economics or market levels. It’s all about the ability of Health Services to cope with an unexpected shoc...

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As Markets are pummeled, the blame game begins.

19/03/2020

This is not the end of the World - but is likely a Market Reset Moment

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Models show the virus will not kill us all and will abate. Its unlikely markets will follow a similar path - more likely is a full market reset - much lower stocks and higher interest rates.

19/03/2020

This is not the end of the World - but is likely a Market Reset Moment

  

That the virus will abate is a simple matter of fact. Just as suddenly and quickly as it struck, it will feel like it fizzles out much fas...

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Models show the virus will not kill us all and will abate. Its unlikely markets will follow a similar path - more likely is a full market reset - much lower stocks and higher interest rates.