Log In

Balloons and Common Sense. Lots of improbable things to consider over breakfast.

Rugby, Balloons and Employment Data – so much to consider this morning, but what this market needs a dose of common sense, understanding of central banks, and catharsis. Real interest rates and normalisation will provide solid foundations for real growth and recovery – not market froth!
Read More

Adani – What does it mean for markets? A risk crisis is coming!

The big story in the market has been the humbling of Indian conglomerate Adani. Who could have guessed? But the real issue isn’t that a company may have fooled the market over its value, but that the market never worked out how improbable the valuations were. Time to check up on risk management!
Read More

Euphoric Hasty Markets are Mispriced – Steady and Calm – Consider Tesla.

Markets have a habit of getting over-excited. They get FOMO and become over hasty. Although the outlook is improving, there is certainly little to justify some of the more speculative hype dominating market moves. Time a bit of rational thinking and common sense – consider Tesla as an example of misplaced hopes.
Read More

Don’t worry about the UK – I’ve got an idea…

Gosh… The Rest of the World wonders how the UK has suddenly become a corruption-raddled third world kleptocracy. The optics are terrible. Even the Russians are moving out! Fortunately, there may be a solution:  let’s be British about it, and show everyone we can do political knavery better than anyone else!
Read More