Around the globe everyone thinks inflation is beaten. It may well be, but the consequences will persist. Interest rates may not “pivot” the way market optimists hope, with profound implications for equities and bonds. We are into a new market cycle of normalised rates and corporate fundamentals. All-in-all, that’s a good thing for growth!
Banks are as safe as houses, till the moment they aren’t. Investment banks think the AT1 hybrid capital market looks cheap on the basis higher rates are good for banks. Rising defaults.. not so much. Bank hybrid capital is a complex area and not for the faint-hearted or ill-informed.
The UK stock market hit a new high yesterday! And its all due to Brexit – apparently? Sometimes we bet on red and it comes up black. As long as the UK remains delusional about making a bad call, the nation will continue to underperform and sink down the league tables. We could make national honesty a strength!.
Delighted to hand this morning’s Porridge to my colleague Julian Wheeler, who reminds us not to fight the Fed, making the argument against deep recession and for stock market upside. Markets are about differing views and perspectives – and despite my latent bearishness, I find myself in agreement with much of what Julian says.
Consumption and a cost-of-living crisis are upon us, but markets blithely assume it’s all upside to 2023. The risk is not a massive crash, but growing realisation the global economy has peaked, needs a period of normalisation and a reset after the madness of the last decade.
Global Markets have started 2022 on a stronger footing than many feared – the issue may be too much focus on short-term positives while long-term embedded problems remain unaddressed. Even the outlook for the UK may be improving – and a change in politics will allow the fundamental rot at the core of the economy to be cauterised.
Microsoft taking a controlling stake in ChatGPT highlights how the world is going to change as AI becomes embedded across news, data and analysis. Compare my take on the market with the AI. As GPT rolls out it will trigger a new Tech revolution, but how will it be controlled and what are the dangers?
The failure of Virgin Orbit to achieve the first successful satellite launch from the UK is disappointing. It puts the opportunities for space business under the spotlight. There is money to be made, but how, and by whom?
