Category Virus Recovery

The Great Transition: Monetary hopes to Fiscal reality

How long can markets party on like there is no tomorrow? The thing is – there always is and the hangover is bound to hurt, which is an apt metaphor as English pubs reopen today ! Markets need to prepare for the inevitable consequences of the big transition from 12 mixed years of fairly useless monetary experimentation to a future of fiscal pump-prime policies. What will it all mean for speculative bubbles, inflation and investment preservation?

Markets Rally, but what about COVID?

Markets look set to rally strongly into Q2, but are they over-exuberant? The rise in deaths and new strains in Brazil hints the Covid war isn’t won yet, there are rising political risks in Europe, and widening wealth inequality is apparent everywhere. Just how solid are our expectations of stability, renewed global travel and recovery if Covid is here for the long-term?

Just how distorting could ESG prove?

As vaccine wars hot up and markets worry about interest rates and central bank action, the theme of price distortion continues to unsettle valuations. One aspect of distortion is in the increasing weight being put on ESG metrics – which should be market positive, but look to be vulnerable to Woke-like “doubleplusungood” groupthink, potentially further distorting markets.

European Vaccine Squabbles as UK Flounces Out

Europe's vaccine rollout is in tatters as a result of stupid politics and a desire to blame the UK, while the UK has just sent a very unsubtle message about Europe looking after itself. Its a silly playground squabble that needs to be resolved quickly, but at its heart is the usual European problem: Britain vs France.