Is inflation dead or just resting? Are rates likely to remain higher for longer, or are we poised on the edge of a bond bull market? Everyone is watching energy and tensions around the Middle East. I suggest we worry about wages as well.
The Gods of Chaos have brought together an alliance to bring down the West. If its not the weather, it will be Russia, Gas prices, the Middle East and Oil, or maybe the prime global commodity – Chips – is the next thing they will target. I'm staying long Gold.
The US economy posted strong growth in the face of monetary headwinds and financial adversity, demonstrating its unique strengths. But how sustainable is it in the face of debt, higher rates and political crisis?
There is a crisis brewing – things are likely to get worse before they get better on the back of Political Dither, a Reverse Big Bang in the City of London, and the Escalation of the Middle East crisis threatens higher energy costs and inflation!
Biden’s trip to Israel and Jordan vs Putin’s to Beijing - which will prove more meaningful? Meanwhile, Italy’s latest tax cuts and spending plans mimic the Trusterf*ck, but Meloni seems to have got away with it – for how long?
Many market participants fear the rising quantum of Government Debt spells crisis across the globe. Tush and Nonsense. Debt is not the problem – markets exist to price risk. The crisis lies in economic management, and Political Risk!
Are global economies heading for a soft or crash landing? Why the Republicans seeking to impeach President Biden have just played a brilliant short-term political hand, and what the ARM IPO tells us about gullibility in bubble times.
Markets are at an inflection point: bonds are more attractive, but credit risks rise in a deflationary bust? Or should higher oil prices remind us what triggered inflation, and raise the risk of consequential Stagflation!
While the US is on holiday, its maybe time to consider the biggest threat to market-political stability in 2024 – the US electoral cycle. It’s a pretty binary – Trump or anyone else. At present Biden is setting up to lose – anyone else would likely win.
Jackson Hole, BRICS, Inflation, Bond Yields, the Dollar, AI and so many more things to worry about – but what does it really boil down to? Who will be trading with who, and what will be driving growth?
