This could get messy.
Markets feel directionless, demotivated and listless as we wait for the next impetus to emerge – problem is, it might be a shocker.
Blain's Morning Porridge
Financial Commentary for Smart People
Blain's Morning Porridge
Financial Commentary for Smart People
Category USA
China vs the USA – Does it have to be war?
China will remain the driver of global growth as the West continues to slide. The economy is reopening swiftly, raising increased fears of de-dollarisation. It’s easy to get emotional, but the reality is its happening, get used to it, and figure out the outcomes. They may surprise you..
Trump, Democracy, Populism and Markets? Who Wins?
The Chinese must be delighted, but Donald J Trump is not the problem, just a symptom of crisis within Democracy. The issue is how it plays out for markets in terms of future global alliances, trade, economic growth and prosperity - the signs are not looking good.
The approaching Real Estate (CRE) storm will be a crisis – but is hardly unexpected!
Fears of a full-on Commercial Real Estate Crisis are mounting as rising rates, a dearth of credit and a record redemption schedule combine into a perfect storm – but the market is already expecting it, so what will be the credit event or no-see-um that tiggers a market meltdown?
Oil Shock a Harbinger of Geopolitical Shocks to Come
Q2 opens up with a new oil shock, but after the volatile start to 2023 what will roil markets next? Might it be further geopolitical instability?
What will China do?
Analysts and big money say it’s time to reinvest in China on the back of growth and rising prosperity. But global headlines point to rising geopolitical confrontation which could see China sanctioned, or even a hot war with the US. The real issue may be China’s rapidly declining demographics.
Guest Post: Recession? Says Who?
Delighted to hand this morning’s Porridge to my colleague Julian Wheeler, who reminds us not to fight the Fed, making the argument against deep recession and for stock market upside. Markets are about differing views and perspectives – and despite my latent bearishness, I find myself in agreement with much of what Julian says.
World Cup, Flu and Where do markets go next?
After some tumultuous weeks in global markets, where do we go from here in terms of the dollar, inflation, energy, China? It’s all terribly complex, but probably good news for some and bad for others. The UK is likely on the loser list.
Big Shifts last week set to dominate markets long term
Last week saw a succession of fundamental shifts in how the global economy is working: inflation, China’s reopening, western politics, crypto, Climate Change, Tech stocks, and in Ukraine. These all have significant potential market implications.
US Midterms are great news for Market, a win for Real Republicans and a massive defeat for Donald Trump
US Midterms were a mild win for Republicans, a loss for Democrats, a Big Win for Democracy and a Massive Defeat for Donald Trump. That’s all great news for markets and the global economy.