Category USA

All Eyes are on Ukraine, but perhaps the market should look elsewhere – to Turkey?

Ukraine has kicked off and its risk-off for markets as the reality there being no effective Western response kicks in. The implications for markets are huge – especially from the global geo-political perspective as nations decide how to play this. Turkey is caught in a classic currency-debt crisis which is now an opportunity for Erdogan and threat for the West and China.

The Macro and Micro faultlines set to take down markets – from Ukraine to the UK Post Office

The world is a complex place, and the massive macro threat posed by Ukraine is a clear danger to markets. Less clear, but just as significant, is economic failure at the micro level as firms start to fail as banks pull back, and the sheer injustice of what happened to UK Postmasters. The elites will protect their own - not a single manager will go to jail despite their appalling treatment of post office staff.

The Unstable World of The Geopolitics of Energy

Ukraine is giving the media their next Covid-level dose of excitement, but highlights just how quickly events creep up on markets. Unwise decisions years ago by western governments in terms of energy security and global priorities have created the current crisis. It will have massive effects on energy transition, global growth and bodes ill for European stability.

2022 Outlook – Politics will be a worry, but Credit will be the Big Risk

Let me present a list of things to worry about next year. Inflation, US and China growth, Stagflation, Central Banks, Stocks, Climate and Equality, etc, etc.. But the big risks will be the consequences of US Politics and a Liquidity Meltdown in the Credit Markets.