The Bank of England averted a run on the UK’s investment institutions yesterday. Chancellor Kwarteng is unlikely to thank them for their calm competency and credibility. The Bank’s intervention has triggered a global rally as the market now expects more central bank support.
It wasn’t Kwasi’s fault. It was the pinko Media that crushed sterling, The Bank of England and these nasty Remoaners murdered Gilts – says the man shorting sterling… If it wasn’t so serious it would make a brilliant comedy. Perhaps it will.
The UK confidence crisis is not over yet. Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng is saying nothing, hoping for stability. The Bank of England finds itself providing top cover by its willingness to hike rates. The Treasury Select Committee should be asking what advice the OBR, Treasury, The Bank of England and the Gilts Office gave Kwarteng.
What a mess. Kwasi Kwarteng’s Special Fiscal Operation failed to stabilise UK markets and has zero prospect of driving growth. The new government stumbled at the first jump. How bad will it get? What are the implications? Who is next for the Chancellor’s job?
The new Truss/Kwarteng grand plan to create a UK High Growth High Wage economy boils down to trickle-down economics, which simply don’t work. They won’t restore the economy, but they may, perversely, boost markets.
The Old Age is over, and its welcome to the new, which is going to be little different – just a lot more complex. Thriving in a confused new economy of energy scarcity, inflation, recession and geopolitical threat isn’t easy – as the UK is about to discover.
As London grieves we’re not paying much attention to politics and markets – but we should. The outlook is deteriorating. Confidence is declining and will likely get worse if the new government’s lack of awareness and sensitivity continues.
Stock markets may be crashing on inflation fears, but watch the Putin Xi summit in Samarkand tomorrow as the critical event this week. Is China prepared to reinforce Putin’s failure – and what does that mean in terms of risk?
The UK’s finances depend on how long energy security remains compromised, and whether the new Truss government can convince markets to fund that time.
This Elizabethan Age has ended. Queen Elizabeth was instrumental in establishing and strengthening the UK’s Soft-Power and global position on an increasingly confused global stage. It’s time to look to the future.
