Christmas is coming, but plenty still to think about in terms of markets; from the lessons on Covid re-opening in China, what Tesla’s shareprice tells about the resurgence of common sense, and the prospects of 2 years of dither into the very necessary general election the UK needs to move forward!
Doom and Gloom dominates the economic mood. Analysts are predicting just how bad it will be next year – but easy money was the drug that fuelled the financial excesses of the 2010s, the market is still addicted to it, and the current dire sentiment is cold turkey..
Good is bad, and bad is good as Kwasi Kwarteng wins the Financial Idiot of the Year award as the IMF warns about the consequences and dangers of $80 trillion of hidden swap debt and rising global debt levels. Should we worry? Probably.
The CBI think the next decade could be lost as the UK is swamped by stagflation, zero growth and disinvestment, and wonder what the government’s plan is? There isn’t one except to ignore the brutal truth of acknowledging the greatest mistake the UK ever made.
After some tumultuous weeks in global markets, where do we go from here in terms of the dollar, inflation, energy, China? It’s all terribly complex, but probably good news for some and bad for others. The UK is likely on the loser list.
UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt did an excellent job presenting a tough Austerity budget as a route to potential future growth, but Labour has many valid points: words are cheap, actions speak louder, and the Tories were straightjacketed into Austerity by their previous incompetency.
The UK is about to commit Economic Suicide – Austerity spending into the teeth of a raging (but short-term) inflation gale, and looming recession. Today will cost the UK future growth, loss of soft power and influence, and leave the nation further deflated, broken and ultimately divided. But political and economic incompetence leaves few alternatives.
Last week saw a succession of fundamental shifts in how the global economy is working: inflation, China’s reopening, western politics, crypto, Climate Change, Tech stocks, and in Ukraine. These all have significant potential market implications.
COP27 is about the politics of global energy – energy being the lifeblood of growth and prosperity. The Ukraine war’s outcome is also about energy: can Europe withstand Russia’s General Winter and coordinated assaults on its’ economy and political stability.
The Bank of England laid out bleak scenarios for the UK economy – but the outlook and long term future will be worse because the Government has “straight-jacketed” its budget options down to Austerity – which will lead to economic disaster. There is an alternative!