Good is bad, and bad is good as Kwasi Kwarteng wins the Financial Idiot of the Year award as the IMF warns about the consequences and dangers of $80 trillion of hidden swap debt and rising global debt levels. Should we worry? Probably.
Elections are a wonderful way to unravel the risks of political incompetency by letting the people, rather than politicians, decide. Meanwhile, the collapse of another thing in Crypto comes as no surprise. If it did, consider a career change.
The Bank of England laid out bleak scenarios for the UK economy – but the outlook and long term future will be worse because the Government has “straight-jacketed” its budget options down to Austerity – which will lead to economic disaster. There is an alternative!
The Bank of England averted a run on the UK’s investment institutions yesterday. Chancellor Kwarteng is unlikely to thank them for their calm competency and credibility. The Bank’s intervention has triggered a global rally as the market now expects more central bank support.
It wasn’t Kwasi’s fault. It was the pinko Media that crushed sterling, The Bank of England and these nasty Remoaners murdered Gilts – says the man shorting sterling… If it wasn’t so serious it would make a brilliant comedy. Perhaps it will.
The UK confidence crisis is not over yet. Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng is saying nothing, hoping for stability. The Bank of England finds itself providing top cover by its willingness to hike rates. The Treasury Select Committee should be asking what advice the OBR, Treasury, The Bank of England and the Gilts Office gave Kwarteng.
What a mess. Kwasi Kwarteng’s Special Fiscal Operation failed to stabilise UK markets and has zero prospect of driving growth. The new government stumbled at the first jump. How bad will it get? What are the implications? Who is next for the Chancellor’s job?
As London grieves we’re not paying much attention to politics and markets – but we should. The outlook is deteriorating. Confidence is declining and will likely get worse if the new government’s lack of awareness and sensitivity continues.
The UK’s finances depend on how long energy security remains compromised, and whether the new Truss government can convince markets to fund that time.
The UK is at risk of breaking its “Virtuous Sovereign Trinity” of stable politics, currency and bond markets. Collapsing confidence in politics to stem the slide in sterling and thus Gilts, could see the UK stumble into a crippling Sovereign Financial crisis sooner than we think possible.
