Category Trump

Blain’s Morning Porridge Artificial Intelligence Capitalism central banks ECB Economy Political risk Politics Trump USA

Soft or Crash Landing, Impeachment, and ARM IPO – what a lark…

Are global economies heading for a soft or crash landing? Why the Republicans seeking to impeach President Biden have just played a brilliant short-term political hand, and what the ARM IPO tells us about gullibility in bubble times.

ARM, Biden, Impeachment, Softbank, Trump
Bill Blain
September 14, 2023
3

Blain’s Morning Porridge Debt Financial Crisis geopolitics Inflation Trump

Inflation, Debt Ceilings, Trump.. Oh no.. here we go again.

“Curiously, the only thing that went through the mind of the bowl of petunias was; Oh no, not again..” Inflation is what inflation is.. Prices are still rising, Central Banks are watching, the US debt ceiling crisis will distract us all, and Donald Trump remains… “extraordinary”. All feels a bit unstable.

CPI, Debt Ceiling, Inflation, Rents, Trump
Bill Blain
May 11, 2023
1

Blain’s Morning Porridge Fake News News Politics Trump

Fox News Nil, Truth and Honesty $787 million.

The primacy of truth, honesty and distinguishing the difference between a lie presented as irrefutable truth, and politically inspired balderdash was restablished last night. It matters.. And will cost Fox News and Rupert Murdoch more than just the $787 million settlement. It might just save democracy.

Dominion Voting, Fake News, Fox News, News, Smartmatic
Bill Blain
April 19, 2023
4

Blain’s Morning Porridge Political risk Politics Trump USA

Trump, Democracy, Populism and Markets? Who Wins?

The Chinese must be delighted, but Donald J Trump is not the problem, just a symptom of crisis within Democracy. The issue is how it plays out for markets in terms of future global alliances, trade, economic growth and prosperity - the signs are not looking good.

Democracy, Donald Trump, Political Show Trials, US politics
Bill Blain
April 5, 2023
3

Blain’s Morning Porridge Capitalism China Climate Change Economy Europe Financial Crisis Markets Political risk Politics Trump USA

The Geopolitical No-See-Um threat posed by Chips may be less than that posed by Trump.

Chips are a critical component of global supply chains – there are significant geopolitical risks inherent in the concentration of semi-conductor production in Taiwan. However, an even bigger geopolitical risk may have been triggered by the FBI raiding Trump’s lair in Mar-a-Lago.

Chip production, Semi-conductors, Trump Risk
Bill Blain
August 10, 2022
20

Blain’s Morning Porridge Capitalism China Energy Political risk Trump USA

Omens and Signs – what lies ahead?

Lots of small signals, rising rates, a tech wobble, Covid vs freedom, China’s Covid crisis and the anniversary of the Capitol riot make for a rich stew of confusion in today’s markets!

Capitol Riot, Covid in China, Energy Crisis
Bill Blain
January 6, 2022
3

China Trump USA

Blain’s Morning Porridge – Nov 24 2020: Glimmering Hope?

Blain’s Morning Porridge – Nov 24 2020: Glimmering Hope? “Up the hill, the sheep bleat, oblivious to the rise and…

Bill Blain
November 24, 2020

Economy Covid Trump

Blain’s Morning Porridge – 12 Mar 2020 – Trump’s left US unready

Blain’s Morning Porridge – March 13th 2020 “Climb Mount Fuji” I don’t think we will be getting any kind of…

Bill Blain
March 12, 2020

Covid Financial Crisis Trump

Blain’s Morning Porridge – Mar 10 2020 – Buy Dips or Sell Rally?

Blain’s Morning Porridge – March 10th 2020 “The Renaissance took place in an era of chaos and plague” After yesterday’s…

Bill Blain
March 10, 2020

Higher for Longer – Markets Could Struggle With the New Reality
September 22, 2023
The Bank and The Fed have served notice they will remain vigilant – higher for longer! Markets would be wrong to expect early easing. Wage Inflation and Energy remain very real threats over the medium term – it may trigger volatility as markets understand the new reality.Read More »
Debt is Not The Problem – Economic Management Is.
September 21, 2023
Many market participants fear the rising quantum of Government Debt spells crisis across the globe. Tush and Nonsense. Debt is not the problem – markets exist to price risk. The crisis lies in economic management, and Political Risk!Read More »
U-Turn on Net-Zero Raises Serious UK Market Risks
September 20, 2023
Rishi Sunak’s U-Turn on Net Zero is politically expedient, but raises serious long-term questions about the investibility of the UK economy and its place in the world, but… hey, it might just win them some votes (just don’t let your kids know!)Read More »
The Market has no Memory when it comes to Bank Capital
September 19, 2023
It’s International Talk Like A Pirate Day, which will make it interesting for UBS trying to persuade once-bitten, twice-shy investors to buy new AT1 CoCo Bond after what happened to Credit Suisse investors.. “Arrr… You know it makes sense, young Jim-me-lad… Shiver-me-timbers… “Read More »
Why the UK? Things are going to Get Interesting
September 18, 2023
It’s been a “meh” year for the UK markets, but they’re marginally up on the year. The outlook for a rusted economy, crashing discretionary spending, and an imminent housing collapse looks bad. As the UK electoral cycle kicks into high gear.. markets are in favour of change.Read More »