Stock buybacks are a contentious issue – there are times they are the right thing to do, and make sense. Often they do not. The trick is to align them with shareholder value and stakeholders and be aware of the consequences. They should not just be about the stock price!
Harry Hindsight is the greatest trader who ever lived. He saw the July/August rally was just a bear trap. But, he’s not revealing his thoughts on how much further the market has to correct. Some analysts see mean reversion all the way back to 2008 levels!
Stocks tumbled 20% in H1, but Central Banks are fixated on Inflation as the No 1 priority with higher interest rates nailed on. Supply chain issues remain difficult, meaning corporate earnings will remain under pressure. The market is setting up for further weakness through H2.
Netflix just experienced its’ judder moment – and it is shaking markets. Overnight the streamer became a completely different investment proposition, even though we’ve been warning it was inevitable. There are lessons to be learnt across the equity market.
After yesterday’s dramatic market roller-coaster, traders are wondering if it’s a buy-the-dip moment. They probably will. But the narrative has reversed. The improbable tech stocks into substantial correction territory have a considerable way still to fall if history is any guide.
Let me present a list of things to worry about next year. Inflation, US and China growth, Stagflation, Central Banks, Stocks, Climate and Equality, etc, etc.. But the big risks will be the consequences of US Politics and a Liquidity Meltdown in the Credit Markets.
There is general sense “something wicked this way comes” towards current priced for perfection markets, but trying to define the exact N0-see-um likely to trigger a market correction or meltdown is a notoriously pointless game. However, there are plenty of ways to prepare for whatever comes next….
Q1 was “interesting”. More financial madness in 3 months than I’ve seen in 35 years, but at least it was fun. How much more sober and boring might the market become? Deliveroo’s botched IPO suggests Investors ain’t as stupid as we think.
Central Banks face a critical ask; how to raise rates to avert fuelling the financial asset bubble without triggering market meltdown. And some brief thoughts on Scotland.
This morning: While Bonds dominate market moves, the BIG future investment picture is about how geopolitics move towards new US relationship with China – particularly where Europe stands. The US is potentially the biggest loser
