Category stagflation

Prepare for Upside – but find it first!

The Fed just aggressively hiked 75 bp in the midst of the first major correction since 2009, making clear the game has changed, and we’re into a whole new cycle. While the market correction remains ongoing, when it flips, it will flip swiftly. Already there are positive signals to be seen – but only if you look outside the box.

Inflation, FAANGs and Airplanes – where the real world and finance collide!

Markets are being whipsawed by rate hike threats from Central Banks, China lockdowns, the Ukraine war, while being stalked by inflation and stagflation. The big risk remains policy mistakes – trying to solve these with the wrong monetary and fiscal policies.

A series of unpredictable things that might or might not happen in 2022!

Occasionally the Morning Porridge strikes a lucky insight on markets – this morning here are some thoughts on how 2022 markets and events may or may not develop. If they occur I shall hail myself an investment genius. If not, can we quietly forget them?

The Omicron Economic Threat

Lockdowns and travel restrictions highlight the economic damage Omicron has done to the whole European Economy. Corporate resilience will be severely tested – whatever governments decide. The likelihood of stagflation has risen, but markets are likely to benefit from buy-the-dip mentality as investors weigh-up renewed government support if/when it turns nasty!

2022 Outlook – Politics will be a worry, but Credit will be the Big Risk

Let me present a list of things to worry about next year. Inflation, US and China growth, Stagflation, Central Banks, Stocks, Climate and Equality, etc, etc.. But the big risks will be the consequences of US Politics and a Liquidity Meltdown in the Credit Markets.