Category stagflation

The Phillips Curve – Just How Inappropriate a Economic Tool Is It?

Phillips Curve economics calls for higher unemployment to calm inflation. Great plan says The Bank and Chancellor while consigning millions of UK citizens to penury. We need something better than wrecking lives and the economy.

Learning from mistakes to call the next ones…

The debt ceiling crisis has lifted a cloud from markets, but we’re still looking for resolution on inflation, geopolitics and a host of other issues. Maybe the real issues are about valuations – which remain over-extraordinary.

The Long and the Short and the Tall of trying to figure out investment strategies.

Markets are focused on the immediate debt-ceiling crisis, and the short-term game of guessing rates vs inflation. Down the line are the bigger challenges of the medium and long-term: issues we need to be investing in now to garner long-run returns or just to survive!

The £5.40 Coffee in a paper cup spells the end of everything

What does £5.40 a coffee tell us about the economy? That inflation is sticky. Do we face a stagflationary bust or a reflationary boom? Either will mean Central Banks have failed. At the heart of today’s economy are a succession of issues to resolve – not least is the need for a reset on corporate behaviours to drive stable growth.

Big Shifts last week set to dominate markets long term

Last week saw a succession of fundamental shifts in how the global economy is working: inflation, China’s reopening, western politics, crypto, Climate Change, Tech stocks, and in Ukraine. These all have significant potential market implications.