Deflation, Argentina and OpenAI – What does it all mean?
Would you rather lose your job to stagflation, recession or deflation? Argentina’s voters have gone for the populist option – good luck! OpenAI – I guess the genie is out the bottle.
Blain's Morning Porridge
Financial Commentary for Smart People
Blain's Morning Porridge
Financial Commentary for Smart People
Category Sovereign Debt
Scotland in the International Bond Markets? Give me a Break….
As the global economy stands on the precipice - about to step forward, Scotland announces its going to launch its debut bond issue. It is political theatre of the worst kind – there are so many reasons it’s such a bad idea – today. Tomorrow might be different.
Scotland in the International Bond Markets? Give me a Break….
As the global economy stands on the precipice - about to step forward, Scotland announces its going to launch its debut bond issue. It is political theatre of the worst kind – there are so many reasons it’s such a bad idea – today. Tomorrow might be different.
Why the BBC is wrong about the UK’s Debt Cost, and DON’T PANIC about Bond Markets!
The markets are panicking about bond yields. There is little to panic about. Higher rates will normalise the economy – but the commentariat loves to make a problem into a crisis. Y’day the BBC got it badly wrong, confusing the cost of new debt with debt service costs.
From the Road: visit Portugal now before everyone else does!
Normal Morning Porridge will resume later this week. I’ve been taking a short-break travelling round Portugal, and it’s an extraordinary place. The possibilities and opportunities confirm it's far too easy to simply dismiss Europe’s periphery as irrelevant.
Debt is Not The Problem – Economic Management Is.
Many market participants fear the rising quantum of Government Debt spells crisis across the globe. Tush and Nonsense. Debt is not the problem – markets exist to price risk. The crisis lies in economic management, and Political Risk!
Half Time Score – how is 2023 likely to shape up for markets?
Markets have been far more positive than expected in 2023 – thus far. There is still much uncertainty out there, but what is the market missing? I have two particular under-played threats to watch – corporate debt and social unrest.
Watch the Bond Market – that’s where the line will break!
Watch the Bond Markets. In bonds there is truth. Brutal, uncompromising, painful truth. When the crisis comes, it will hit bond markets first.