Category Scotland

Blain’s Morning Porridge Bank of England Brexit Europe Scotland UK

A Porridge from 2033: 10-years of Future Economic History in 1500 words..

By some freakish temporal rift, a Morning Porridge from 10-years in the future was delivered into my email box last week – describing the monumental political and economic events of the last decade… Freaky eh? Who would expect such a thing…? It happens…

10-years from the future, England, Scotland, The Island of Britain
Bill Blain
April 7, 2023
6

Blain’s Morning Porridge Politics Scotland UK

Scotland… Independence or vote Labour? It’s a critical call for the UK!

Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation as Scotland’s First Minister has triggered fervid speculation about votes going to Labour – another nail in Tory hopes of electoral recovery. Things seldom play out as expected – the Scots are a troublesome lot!

Blain’s Morning Porridge Scotland

Scotland – Does it have to be a binary question?

9 years after Scotland voted to stay in the United Kingdom, the neferendum continues as Sturgeon demands a recount. But does it have to be this way? Independence looks like economic suicide, but Scotland is a nation rich in inventive people. Maybe we need something different: a new Union of proud, independent but culturally aligned nations?

Bonds Blain’s Morning Porridge Scotland taper

Bonds Tell Truth, but the Market is Broken

The great Autumnal Bond Funding Season is upon us, but the looming taper of Central Bank Asset Purchase Schemes could well expose just how broken and dysfunctional bond markets have become. Markets always over-react to stress and panics, but when markets struggle with price discovery and liquidity the coming sell off could be magnified, which means a great buying opportunity in bonds may be coming!

Blain’s Morning Porridge Scotland

Only one contest matters in UK local Elections

UK Local Elections are pretty dull and meaningless affairs, but the vote in Scotland is perhaps an even more important plebiscite than Brexit. If the SNP achieve an absolute majority, then the UK could plunge into more years of uncertainty and distraction – whatever Boris thinks.

Brexit, Independence Referendum, Scotland, UK
Bill Blain
May 6, 2021
2

Blain’s Morning Porridge Europe Inflation Politics Scotland UK USA Virus Recovery

Failing Global Politics and Inflation will be a Nasty Shock

Across the Occidental Economy there seems a trend towards political failure as polarization, sleaze and opportunism takes hold, even as electorates suffer from increasing inequality and declining prospects. As the threat of post-pandemic inflation rises, the ingredients are all there for further instability and labour strife. It’s all happening as the geo-political spheres of influence between China and the West are being redrawn.

China, Geopolitics, Inflation, Political Risk, UK, UK Politics, USA
Bill Blain
May 4, 2021
1

Scotland Politics

Scots’ Wha Hae!

Blain’s Morning Porridge – Jan 25th 2025 – Scots’ Wha Hae! “Welcome to your gory bed, or to victory..” Tonight,…

Bill Blain
January 25, 2021

Scotland

Blain’s Morning Porridge – St Andrew’s Day 2020 – It Will Happen

Better it were for Whigs and Whiggery meeting the Devil than Donald MacGillavry! First this morning; a gentle reminder of…

Bill Blain
November 30, 2020

UK Inflation is Sticky… Wow! Try telling that to the Bank of England. Why?
May 25, 2023
Yesterday’s UK inflation numbers hint the Bank doesn’t understand the modern drivers of inflation or how to address them. It leaves some stark likely outcomes: stagflation or a Reflationary Death Scramble. Neither are good.Read More »
BRICS? China’s Economic Strategy is Propaganda-driven in the Geopolitical Rut.
May 24, 2023
There is a myth BRICS nations now exceed the GDP of the G7 West. It’s propaganda to boost a story of de-dollarisation, anti-G7 rhetoric and how China and its allies will create a stronger, more equal global market. It’s like watching Stags fight for dominance.Read More »
Fishing, Markets, the UK and the Scandal of the Libor Scandal!
May 22, 2023
Markets remain obscure and uncertain, but the UK’s virtuous sovereign trinity and financial exceptionalism is at stake as political graft mounts and a previous financial scandal comes back as a new one – the Libor Scandal needs investigation.Read More »
The Long and the Short and the Tall of trying to figure out investment strategies.
May 19, 2023
Markets are focused on the immediate debt-ceiling crisis, and the short-term game of guessing rates vs inflation. Down the line are the bigger challenges of the medium and long-term: issues we need to be investing in now to garner long-run returns or just to survive!Read More »
Bank of England confirms sticky inflation and reflation, and the big lesson from the Ukraine war.
May 18, 2023
Two parts this morning: What the Bank of England actually said, and The Big Lesson from the Ukraine War is simple: “Things are seldom as bad as we fear, but never as good as we hope.” Global geopolitics and markets have taken a knock, but will coalesce around whatever new global links emerge.Read More »