The biggest crisis the West faces may not be the challenges of energy, confidence, inflation and growth, but restoring trust in the narrative by cutting out the disinformation planted by our enemies. Time for some leadership.
Stock markets may be crashing on inflation fears, but watch the Putin Xi summit in Samarkand tomorrow as the critical event this week. Is China prepared to reinforce Putin’s failure – and what does that mean in terms of risk?
The news looks bleak. A cataclysm of gloom is set to sink Europe and the UK – but, maybe things aren’t as bad as we think. Good news and a realisation things can get better could stabilize sentiment, and build a recovery base. Maybe?
Putin’s supposed cleverness haunts markets. How much harder will he squeeze Europe’s energy crisis? How will Russia change the geo-political order? Will Italy’s coming election be the crisis that breaks the Euro? We give Russia too much credit – it’s a weak nation that can only get weaker.
Markets and Geopolitics intersect in the Great Game being played in Ukraine. The West’s economies are diverging as a result of inflation shocks and looming recession. Divergence will play into Russian’s hands, and presents a clear market strategy: Buy Dollars and Sell Europe.
May markets are finishing on a dead-cat bounce - things could get more unstable through June. The outcomes in Ukraine are looking less favourable, and Europe will struggle with sanctions. The weakest link is unsurprisingly Italy. A bigger crisis in terms of famine will shortly become apparent in North Africa.
Ultimately the economic history books will record Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a speedbump, and perhaps a triumph for a United Europe. The consequences of an Economic War with China could be much, much more significant!
The Ukraine War has catalysed a tsunami of negative economic events around the global economy – and markets are remaining pretty much blind to the long-term consequences.
The West will win the economic war against Russia, but it will take time and impose recessionary costs, while triggering pain across markets (including the housing bubble). But when it’s done… it will time to put your buying boots on!
Who really knows what is happening in Ukraine, or what the players are thinking? The long-term economic consequences could be huge, marking the moment the post Cold-War global consensus and order breaks down. The potential consequences include social and political instability, war, famine, and who knows what else.