Category Recession

Blain’s Morning Porridge Brexit Capitalism central banks Debt defence ECB Economy Energy Europe Financial Crisis Gas Germany Global Growth Government Inflation interest rates Italy Market Crash Political risk Recession Russia sanctions stagflation UK Ukraine USA

Things are never as bad as you fear… are they?

The news looks bleak. A cataclysm of gloom is set to sink Europe and the UK – but, maybe things aren’t as bad as we think. Good news and a realisation things can get better could stabilize sentiment, and build a recovery base. Maybe?

Energy, European Crisis, Gas, politics, Russia
Bill Blain
September 7, 2022
22

Blain’s Morning Porridge Capitalism Economy Global Growth Government Inflation Infrastructure interest rates Political risk Recession stagflation

Let others do the worrying and focus on opportunity!

Pretty bleak headlines this morning – sentiment is crashing. Excellent! In crisis there is opportunity. Where and what are they? For clues, look to how the authorities can address the looming crisis!

Central Bank Policy, Crisis, Government Policy, Policy Mistake Risk
Bill Blain
August 23, 2022
20

Blain’s Morning Porridge Apple Economy Equities Inflation Recession stagflation Tesla

Inflation hits new high, Fed to hike 100 bp, Growth Stocks Rally!

Despite US inflation hitting a 40 year high, US growth stocks rallied – reflecting the belief inflation and recession will be short and sharp. It’s a fair bet – but go back into growth stocks eyes-wide-open, and don’t be fooled by the most dangerous myth surrounding Tech – Personalities!

Blain’s Morning Porridge central banks Economy Energy Inflation Recession

Markets switching between inflation and recession threats show lack of clear direction.

Don’t be distracted by the antics in Westminster – there is a major market shift going on between the End of the World being triggered by Inflation, or Recession destroying everything. Relax. European Energy policy will probably kill us!

Central Bank Communications, Central Bank Policy, Inflation vs Recession, Market Narrative, Westminister
Bill Blain
July 7, 2022
3

Blain’s Morning Porridge ECB Europe Italy Recession

Porridge Extra – The ECB is panicking. Time to buy Italy?

The ECB is panicking. Time to buy Italy?

Blain’s Morning Porridge Amazon Apple Bitcoin Economy Facebook Inflation Markets Metaverse Pandemic Recession Retail Investors stagflation

The Penny Drops: April Exposes Markets to Some Brutal Truths. Reality Bites.

April 2022 will go down in market history as the month it all became obvious.. But what? That the global economy is in need of repair, markets are overly euphoric and consumers can’t consume when they are broke.

April, Consumers, FAANGs, retail, Taxes, Wages
Bill Blain
April 29, 2022
7

Blain’s Morning Porridge Capitalism central banks Climate Change commodities distortion ECB Economy ESG Financial Assets Government Policy Megatrends Monetary Policy Recession taper

2021 – That was the Year that Was…

“The future may dimly be perceived through the veil of the past”, sounds like bad poetry, but has a point. The confusions and conflabulations that characterised 2021 will likely set the tone for what’s coming – what were the key themes of 2021? Best to understand them before trying to fathom what comes next.

Review of 2021
Bill Blain
December 13, 2021
1

Blain’s Morning Porridge Recession Supply Chains

How long will it take to Normalise, and what will Normal look like?

Christmas is cancelled as supply chains crumble, stagflation mounts and jobs are lost… How long will it last, will there be a buying opportunity, and what will a new normal economy look like?

Global Supply Chains, Recovery prospects, Tesla
Bill Blain
October 4, 2021
5

Covid Air Travel Recession

Blain’s Morning Porridge – May 15 2020: How Bad is Bad?

Blain’s Morning Porridge – May 15th 2020 – How Bad is Bad? “In the face of pain there are no…

Bill Blain
May 15, 2020

Economy Government Policy Recession

Blain’s Morning Porridge May 13 2020 – Rising Policy Mistake Risk

Blain’s Morning Porridge – May 13th 2020 – Rising Policy Risks “How should men in suits know best when they…

Bill Blain
May 13, 2020

The UK crisis: Questions that Must be Asked: How was it allowed to happen?
September 27, 2022
The UK confidence crisis is not over yet. Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng is saying nothing, hoping for stability. The Bank of England finds itself providing top cover by its willingness to hike rates. The Treasury Select Committee should be asking what advice the OBR, Treasury, The Bank of England and the Gilts Office gave Kwarteng.Read More »
The Everything Sell Off – Triggers and Consequences
September 27, 2022
Global Markets have nosedived – the UK’s confidence crisis is one trigger alongside rising recession risks, crashing consumer spending and host of indications we ain’t near done on higher interest rates as inflation becomes embedded into economies and dollar strength continues unabated.Read More »
The UK’s Monumental Policy Mistake – how bad will it get?
September 26, 2022
What a mess. Kwasi Kwarteng’s Special Fiscal Operation failed to stabilise UK markets and has zero prospect of driving growth. The new government stumbled at the first jump. How bad will it get? What are the implications? Who is next for the Chancellor’s job?Read More »
Changing the narrative, one lie at a time
September 22, 2022
The biggest crisis the West faces may not be the challenges of energy, confidence, inflation and growth, but restoring trust in the narrative by cutting out the disinformation planted by our enemies. Time for some leadership.Read More »
The New Truss Trickle-Down Economic Plan Won’t Work, But Might Boost Markets
September 21, 2022
The new Truss/Kwarteng grand plan to create a UK High Growth High Wage economy boils down to trickle-down economics, which simply don’t work. They won’t restore the economy, but they may, perversely, boost markets.Read More »