Markets are focused on the immediate debt-ceiling crisis, and the short-term game of guessing rates vs inflation. Down the line are the bigger challenges of the medium and long-term: issues we need to be investing in now to garner long-run returns or just to survive!
The Market Commentariat think deflation will counter inflation, rates will fall, and recession will be limited. The world is more complex - supply side factors are more volatile. Stagflation is a more likely outcome than recession.
Markets have a habit of getting over-excited. They get FOMO and become over hasty. Although the outlook is improving, there is certainly little to justify some of the more speculative hype dominating market moves. Time a bit of rational thinking and common sense – consider Tesla as an example of misplaced hopes.
Consumption and a cost-of-living crisis are upon us, but markets blithely assume it’s all upside to 2023. The risk is not a massive crash, but growing realisation the global economy has peaked, needs a period of normalisation and a reset after the madness of the last decade.
What is the Fed really thinking? They will probably er on the side of lower rates to avoid recession, running the risk of entrenched wage growth. Soft landings are the stuff of myth! How it effects the global economy is critical.
Watch the Bond Markets. In bonds there is truth. Brutal, uncompromising, painful truth. When the crisis comes, it will hit bond markets first.
The Fed roiled markets over the pace and scale of rate hikes, but ultimately markets are about growth. The big issues were not thinking about enough are global recession, slowing trade, and the threats China’s evolution into a Surveillance State raise for future growth.
The news looks bleak. A cataclysm of gloom is set to sink Europe and the UK – but, maybe things aren’t as bad as we think. Good news and a realisation things can get better could stabilize sentiment, and build a recovery base. Maybe?
Pretty bleak headlines this morning – sentiment is crashing. Excellent! In crisis there is opportunity. Where and what are they? For clues, look to how the authorities can address the looming crisis!
Despite US inflation hitting a 40 year high, US growth stocks rallied – reflecting the belief inflation and recession will be short and sharp. It’s a fair bet – but go back into growth stocks eyes-wide-open, and don’t be fooled by the most dangerous myth surrounding Tech – Personalities!
