Category QE

Blain’s Morning Porridge Bitcoin Bonds Capitalism central banks Climate Change Economy Financial Assets geopolitics Global Growth Markets QE stagflation UK USA

Big Shifts last week set to dominate markets long term

Last week saw a succession of fundamental shifts in how the global economy is working: inflation, China’s reopening, western politics, crypto, Climate Change, Tech stocks, and in Ukraine. These all have significant potential market implications.

China, COP27, Cryptocurrencies, Global Tech, Inflation, US politics
Bill Blain
November 14, 2022
6

Blain’s Morning Porridge Bonds Capitalism central banks Fed Market Crash QE

Bernanke and Dimon: A curious moment in Markets

While Jamie Dimon warns of recession, Ben Bernanke is picking up a Nobel Prize – yet the roots of the multiple crises threatening to overwhelm markets and topple capitalism lie in the solutions they led 14 years ago. They saved the world then – who will rescue it this time?

Blain’s Morning Porridge Alternative Assets Bonds corporate debt Debt ECB Monetary Policy QE

Bond Markets – Don’t Panic Captain Mainwaring (but don’t look behind you…)

In bonds there is pain as prices tumble – but that does not change the fundamentals of investing in bonds. The risk is rising bond yields will expose the dangerous over-valuations low rate distortion has caused across other financial-assets, perhaps causing more than a few bubbles to pop.

Bond Market 101, Credit Markets, Monetary Experimentation, Sovereign Debt
Bill Blain
March 30, 2022
9

Blain’s Morning Porridge central banks interest rates QE Regulation

Taper, Rates, Bond Markets and Consequences

The Fed finally begun its cautious taper and the market did not immediately self-destruct… but the consequences of 14 years of central bank experimentation, regulatory overkill and the “processification’ of markets will have consequences… they may be bleak…

Blain’s Morning Porridge central banks Government Inflation QE USA

The Consequences of Kabul

The shocking return of the Taliban dominates the headlines. It has critical implications for markets. Biden’s loss of credibility creates many hurdles and could drive the US towards isolationism – bruised by yet another flawed foreign adventure. Meanwhile, markets struggle with inflation and climate consequences.

Climate Change, Covid, Inflation, markets, President Biden
Bill Blain
August 16, 2021
10

Blain’s Morning Porridge Alternative Assets Bonds QE Stocks

Watching the Sky for Clues

There is general sense “something wicked this way comes” towards current priced for perfection markets, but trying to define the exact N0-see-um likely to trigger a market correction or meltdown is a notoriously pointless game. However, there are plenty of ways to prepare for whatever comes next….

Alternatives, bonds, Football, Imminent crash?, Meteor Strike, stocks
Bill Blain
April 20, 2021
5

China Covid QE

Blain’s Morning Porridge – June 8 2020: Plans Change..

Blain’s Morning Porridge – June 8th 2020 – Plans and Expectations Change “I Choose Violence.” When the narrative starts to…

Bill Blain
June 8, 2020

QE Rant

Blain’s Morning Porridge – June 1 2020: The Disconnect Widens

Blain’s Morning Porridge – June 1st 2020 – The Disconnect Widens “Lemon tree very pretty and lemon flower is sweet.…

Bill Blain
June 1, 2020

Europe Germany QE

Blain’s Morning Porridge – May 6th 2020 Europe Wobbles

Blain’s Morning Porridge – May 6th 2020 “Let us sing more cheerful songs, more songs full of joy!” I am…

Bill Blain
May 6, 2020

Covid Europe Markets QE

Blain’s Morning Porridge – May 4 2020 – Is it Spring Time?

Blain’s Morning Porridge – May 4th 2020 “Why that’s absurd, the wing is on the bird” Economies are poised to…

Bill Blain
May 4, 2020

Balloons and Common Sense. Lots of improbable things to consider over breakfast.
February 6, 2023
Rugby, Balloons and Employment Data – so much to consider this morning, but what this market needs a dose of common sense, understanding of central banks, and catharsis. Real interest rates and normalisation will provide solid foundations for real growth and recovery – not market froth!Read More »
Adani – What does it mean for markets? A risk crisis is coming!
February 3, 2023
The big story in the market has been the humbling of Indian conglomerate Adani. Who could have guessed? But the real issue isn’t that a company may have fooled the market over its value, but that the market never worked out how improbable the valuations were. Time to check up on risk management!Read More »
The End of An Era in Aviation: Was the Jumbo the Best Plane Ever?
February 2, 2023
Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 2nd 2023 – The End of An Era in Aviation: Was the Jumbo the Best Plane Ever? “I was listening. Listening to the rain. I was hearing. I was hearing something else.” This morning: The last baby Jumbo has fledged the nest. In their day, 747s were simply stunning. Today’s aviation markets are very different and …Read More »
Euphoric Hasty Markets are Mispriced – Steady and Calm – Consider Tesla.
January 31, 2023
Markets have a habit of getting over-excited. They get FOMO and become over hasty. Although the outlook is improving, there is certainly little to justify some of the more speculative hype dominating market moves. Time a bit of rational thinking and common sense – consider Tesla as an example of misplaced hopes.Read More »
What’s the real story in China?
January 27, 2023
While the rest of the world hiked to fight inflation, China has embarked a sprint to reopen the economy; easing rates, mortgages, property lending and loans. The question is can it succeed when demographics, trade and the laws of growth may have already moved against them?Read More »