Farewell Alastair Darling and Shane MacGowan. COP 28 has been getting pushback from activists upset big-business is attending. That’s possibly the best thing for the planet if the commercial sector embraces the challenges and opportunities raised by climate change!
Markets are at an inflection point: bonds are more attractive, but credit risks rise in a deflationary bust? Or should higher oil prices remind us what triggered inflation, and raise the risk of consequential Stagflation!
Analysts and big money say it’s time to reinvest in China on the back of growth and rising prosperity. But global headlines point to rising geopolitical confrontation which could see China sanctioned, or even a hot war with the US. The real issue may be China’s rapidly declining demographics.
Winter is coming as soaring gas prices are set to bite across Europe. Putin’s energy insecurity strategy has proved his major success and could yet win him the Ukraine War. Stagflation is nailed on it Europe.
Energy and Food Security are intricately linked – and constitute the biggest and most immediate “no-see-um” threat markets have faced in decades. It’s time to get real about addressing energy transition and security, and climate change by accepting Nuclear energy is the most viable solution in the time left us.
Occasionally the Morning Porridge strikes a lucky insight on markets – this morning here are some thoughts on how 2022 markets and events may or may not develop. If they occur I shall hail myself an investment genius. If not, can we quietly forget them?
Markets are never as bad as you fear, but never as good as you hope. The Threat Board has seldom looked so complex: we can try to predict outcomes, but its notoriously difficult. The list of potential ignition points seems to be expanding exponentially: Energy Prices, Oil, Inflation, Stagflation, Supply Chains, Recession, China, Politics, Consumer Sentiment, Business Confidence, Property Markets, Liquidity, Bond Yields, Stock Prices.. you name it and someone is worrying about it.
ESG tightened its grip on markets in a succession of wins over oil majors. Is that a good or bad thing? Probably better shareholders decide a company’s green objectives than them being set by bureaucrats, but there will be consequences.
Blain’s Morning Porridge – April 21st 2020 “Life is about losing everything. Gracefully..” The headlines say it all this morning……
Blain’s Morning Porridge – 3rd April 2020 “So, what do you think about a recession? Well, I thought about it…