Category Monetary Policy

Balloons and Common Sense. Lots of improbable things to consider over breakfast.

Rugby, Balloons and Employment Data – so much to consider this morning, but what this market needs a dose of common sense, understanding of central banks, and catharsis. Real interest rates and normalisation will provide solid foundations for real growth and recovery – not market froth!

Bond Markets – Don’t Panic Captain Mainwaring (but don’t look behind you…)

In bonds there is pain as prices tumble – but that does not change the fundamentals of investing in bonds. The risk is rising bond yields will expose the dangerous over-valuations low rate distortion has caused across other financial-assets, perhaps causing more than a few bubbles to pop.

How many reasons to be miserable about markets do you need?

It’s going to be a testing week for markets as a whole slew of negatives, challenges and no-see-ums threaten to overturn everything. It couldn’t look worse… unless of course you remember my key market mantra (read on), and that the sun usually comes up tomorrow. Happy Valentines.. 

2021 – That was the Year that Was…

“The future may dimly be perceived through the veil of the past”, sounds like bad poetry, but has a point. The confusions and conflabulations that characterised 2021 will likely set the tone for what’s coming – what were the key themes of 2021? Best to understand them before trying to fathom what comes next.