Chips are a critical component of global supply chains – there are significant geopolitical risks inherent in the concentration of semi-conductor production in Taiwan. However, an even bigger geopolitical risk may have been triggered by the FBI raiding Trump’s lair in Mar-a-Lago.
The world is watching for signs confirming global recession, so naturally markets have rallied (!). Political instability is resolved to be replaced with some bleak truths and spending choices. So.. steady at the wheel, nothing to worry about then?
Boris in his bunker is a great example of delusion. Eventually those who do not know themselves get sniffed out. Its happening in markets - speculation is dead. Common sense is back.
Did you feel the Earth shake and judder? When dull, boring, predictable retail giants crash 25% intra-day, time to take notice. Boom/Bust is back – and this time its serious. Anyone for the last few choc-ice?
Markets remain in a major correction – but fear not. When the hurly burly is done, what goes down and survives will (eventually) come back up! As the pain bites, I recommend the wit and wisdom of Ace Greenberg, the best banking CEO ever, a man who understood the primacy of common sense.
Yesterday’s ongoing pain in crashing financial asset markets demonstrates the need to diversify portfolios and decorrelated returns. Shipping is one such asset; returns have been boosted by scarcity as a result of the pandemic – the question is: can these returns be maintained?
Markets look distinctly soft, and vulnerable to further downside pressure. The gaps between value, hype and narrative are becoming clearer – spelling opportunity, but also raising the risk of a crash.
After the brutal lessons of April, May will set the tone for a new market – lots of threats, but full of opportunity.
April 2022 will go down in market history as the month it all became obvious.. But what? That the global economy is in need of repair, markets are overly euphoric and consumers can’t consume when they are broke.
Occasionally the Morning Porridge strikes a lucky insight on markets – this morning here are some thoughts on how 2022 markets and events may or may not develop. If they occur I shall hail myself an investment genius. If not, can we quietly forget them?