Markets Uncertain – More pain to come?
Markets look distinctly soft, and vulnerable to further downside pressure. The gaps between value, hype and narrative are becoming clearer – spelling opportunity, but also raising the risk of a crash.
Blain's Morning Porridge
Financial Commentary for Smart People
Blain's Morning Porridge
Financial Commentary for Smart People
Category Market Crash
The Great Crash of 2022 – What happens next? Go read the Book!
Yesterday’s market meltdown was heralded as a “capitulation trade”, but who knows? What we do know is there an awful lot to worry about, and the conditions for the BIG ONE have been building for decades. Time to re-read The Great Crash, 1929.
The risks of appeasing Russia versus the risks of not.
Markets are nervous and set to tumble – spooked by $140 oil, soaring commodities, rising populism on inflation, and stagflationary risks. Some ask: “perhaps this could all be avoided by settling with Putin?” Forget the past at your peril. Appeasement is not the answer. Intimidation stops when you fight back. Now is the time for the west to step up the pressure.
Introducing the D-Jay Wave; a 35-year cycle of Irrational Exuberance
I’d like to introduce you to my latest theory on markets: the D-Jay Wave, a 35-year recurring cycle of irrational market exuberance. I have carefully and diligently researched this over a couple of pints.. It’s therefore better underpinned than most SPACs or Disruptive Tech funds. (Glossy pitchdeck not available.)
If you are looking for truth in markets, in bonds there are fewer lies.
The Stock Market Rollercoaster will continue a while longer, but a decisive divergence point is coming! Corporate debt is likely to crack on rising rates, price distortion, forgotten risk metrics, and rising defaults. It will signal the perilous financial health of some sectors – bursting the current bubble violently. Anyone for the last few choc-ices?
Don’t worry about timing buy-the-dip. Its more fundamental than that.
After yesterday’s dramatic market roller-coaster, traders are wondering if it’s a buy-the-dip moment. They probably will. But the narrative has reversed. The improbable tech stocks into substantial correction territory have a considerable way still to fall if history is any guide.
Tech Stocks’ Reality Bites Moment has Arrived..
Tech stocks have taken a thumping this year – a well-timed reality check or a threat to bring down the whole market? Probably time for a clean out of all the speculative, improbable and fantastical perpetual motion machines that beguiled IPO and SPAC investors during the easy money era. Reality bites and it’s time to get real..
Guessing it won’t be as good as we hope, nor as bad as we fear…
Markets are roiled by lockdowns and approaching holidays. Already the guessing season has begun – with predictions running all the way from Gloomy to Dire. Central Banks will be anxious to be seen to be doing the right thing – which probably means more of the same. And investors? Delusional or exploiting the delusion of others.
The Threat Board is Looking Busy
Markets are never as bad as you fear, but never as good as you hope. The Threat Board has seldom looked so complex: we can try to predict outcomes, but its notoriously difficult. The list of potential ignition points seems to be expanding exponentially: Energy Prices, Oil, Inflation, Stagflation, Supply Chains, Recession, China, Politics, Consumer Sentiment, Business Confidence, Property Markets, Liquidity, Bond Yields, Stock Prices.. you name it and someone is worrying about it.
Complacency rules – what could possibly go wrong…?
Global Markets are somnambulating into the holiday slumber. But, a restful summer does not beckon - everyone fears complacency. Crashes follow a predictable patten – while everyone is looking at the wrong thing, some smart cookie spots the real problem, it happens, the regulators close the loophole, and inevitably it happens all over again somewhere else. What will drive the meltdown this time? Your guess is as good as mine!