Inflation: what if its higher for longer? Bonds or Equity?
There are lots of outlooks and scenarios on the inflation threat: what if its longer and turns stagflationary, and just how much more destabilising would the fraxious global economy become?
Blain's Morning Porridge
Financial Commentary for Smart People
Blain's Morning Porridge
Financial Commentary for Smart People
Category Inflation
Apple’s Bond was a critical moment: sell Euro, buy dollars!
In bonds there is truth: Apple’s Jumbo $5.5 bln corporate bond deal hints of a firmer market to come. A clear divide between US Recovery and European Slowdown is increasingly apparent – a weaker Euro will further add to European problems.
Inflation hits new high, Fed to hike 100 bp, Growth Stocks Rally!
Despite US inflation hitting a 40 year high, US growth stocks rallied – reflecting the belief inflation and recession will be short and sharp. It’s a fair bet – but go back into growth stocks eyes-wide-open, and don’t be fooled by the most dangerous myth surrounding Tech – Personalities!
How long and deep is Inflation, and how close is China to a Banking Crisis?
Blain’s Morning Porridge – July 13th 2022: How long and deep is Inflation, and how close is China to a…
Markets switching between inflation and recession threats show lack of clear direction.
Don’t be distracted by the antics in Westminster – there is a major market shift going on between the End of the World being triggered by Inflation, or Recession destroying everything. Relax. European Energy policy will probably kill us!
Outlook for the second half? Rising interest rates and ongoing supply shocks spell trouble
Stocks tumbled 20% in H1, but Central Banks are fixated on Inflation as the No 1 priority with higher interest rates nailed on. Supply chain issues remain difficult, meaning corporate earnings will remain under pressure. The market is setting up for further weakness through H2.
Dismal Politics, Crashing Markets, Inflation and Exogenous Shocks.. Excellent.. get your buying boots ready!
As we start a new week of dismal markets, depressing political news, rising inflation and lots of what next worries… relax.. the Sun will come up tomorrow. Not so sure about the economy though…
Prepare for Upside – but find it first!
The Fed just aggressively hiked 75 bp in the midst of the first major correction since 2009, making clear the game has changed, and we’re into a whole new cycle. While the market correction remains ongoing, when it flips, it will flip swiftly. Already there are positive signals to be seen – but only if you look outside the box.
Markets, Central Banks, Inflation and the Chaotic Tipping Point
The number of threats facing markets; from inflation, central bank hikes, war, geopolitics, recession risks, corporate earnings and bond liquidity are legion. The big risk is they combine into a chaotic tipping point, at which moment we will just have to pick up the pieces…. Again.
Harry Hindsight, the world’s greatest trader is short Credit, Stocks, Brexit and the UK
Harry Hindsight is the world’s greatest market trader – he’s circling round the opportunities presented by inflation and the risks its presents. He’s short bonds, credit, stocks, Brexit and the UK.