Yesterday’s UK inflation numbers hint the Bank doesn’t understand the modern drivers of inflation or how to address them. It leaves some stark likely outcomes: stagflation or a Reflationary Death Scramble. Neither are good.
Markets remain obscure and uncertain, but the UK’s virtuous sovereign trinity and financial exceptionalism is at stake as political graft mounts and a previous financial scandal comes back as a new one – the Libor Scandal needs investigation.
Markets are focused on the immediate debt-ceiling crisis, and the short-term game of guessing rates vs inflation. Down the line are the bigger challenges of the medium and long-term: issues we need to be investing in now to garner long-run returns or just to survive!
What does £5.40 a coffee tell us about the economy? That inflation is sticky. Do we face a stagflationary bust or a reflationary boom? Either will mean Central Banks have failed. At the heart of today’s economy are a succession of issues to resolve – not least is the need for a reset on corporate behaviours to drive stable growth.
“Curiously, the only thing that went through the mind of the bowl of petunias was; Oh no, not again..”
Inflation is what inflation is.. Prices are still rising, Central Banks are watching, the US debt ceiling crisis will distract us all, and Donald Trump remains… “extraordinary”. All feels a bit unstable.
esterday’s US CPI numbers look good at a glance, but the reality is the Western economies may face ongoing sticky inflation and long-term stagflation while reversing the economic damage of a decade plus of monetary experimentation. That requires new investment approaches.
Part 2 of the London Rent Crisis. London, and whole UK housing market, is broken. Demand greatly exceeds supply allowing rotten greedy landlords to game the system and abuse tenants. Can it be fixed – absolutely…
SVB is a crisis averted, but the market wasn’t paying close attention which spells opportunity. There are bigger risks from central banks being distracted from fighting inflation and normalising rates. That’s the real crisis!
Inflation across the West looks to be more entrenched than markets believed – Higher for Longer. Maybe it’s time to accept it’s going to take time to fix, and look elsewhere for returns.
Consumption and a cost-of-living crisis are upon us, but markets blithely assume it’s all upside to 2023. The risk is not a massive crash, but growing realisation the global economy has peaked, needs a period of normalisation and a reset after the madness of the last decade.