As Greensill and Archegos roil markets and cause losses, they beg the question – who is next? Why is 2021 turning into the year the scams are unravelling? Will leverage on leverage trigger wider implosion or will it be something else, like liquidity?
The collapse of Greensill involved a predicable cast of unwise enablers, but it should serve as a warning to the growing number of Alternative Asset buyers on the dangers of complex deals which promise much but deliver less. Due diligence is critical in the highly illiquid alternatives sector.
As vaccine wars hot up and markets worry about interest rates and central bank action, the theme of price distortion continues to unsettle valuations. One aspect of distortion is in the increasing weight being put on ESG metrics – which should be market positive, but look to be vulnerable to Woke-like “doubleplusungood” groupthink, potentially further distorting markets.
Central Banks are playing the “lower for longer” interest rate card to reassure markets on growth. There are always consequences of such actions – ranging from bubbles, delusion and fraud. Eventually consequences trigger change, and reassessment – which is driving the rotation from Hope as a Strategy Tech into Fundamental stocks – Autos are a good example.
Seven factors to understand the market shift that’s roiling markets; bond yields and inflation, distortion, recovery, leverage, tech vs reality, exuberance, and value.
This morning: Welcome to the New Morning Porridge! Its International Women’s Day! How strong might be the fallout from the collapse of Greensill and unravelling of Gupta in a market already wary of politicians?
Everyone thinks current market volatility is due to the bond market acting like a bully. When it lashes out the market sells off in fright. Volatility is elevated and everyone is flustered about bursting bubbles