Category Global Growth

Forget inflation – its interest rates that will set markets and drive new growth.

Around the globe everyone thinks inflation is beaten. It may well be, but the consequences will persist. Interest rates may not “pivot” the way market optimists hope, with profound implications for equities and bonds. We are into a new market cycle of normalised rates and corporate fundamentals. All-in-all, that’s a good thing for growth!

Football, Recession, Stocks and Nations – so much to look forward to!

Christmas is coming, but plenty still to think about in terms of markets; from the lessons on Covid re-opening in China, what Tesla’s shareprice tells about the resurgence of common sense, and the prospects of 2 years of dither into the very necessary general election the UK needs to move forward!

Did the Fed just make a long term mistake? Is inflation a bad or good thing?

Jerome Powell signalled a slow-down in interest rate hikes – and markets loved it. But did he just make a long-term mistake by not decisively signalling the end of the era of monetary and market distortion? There are lessons to be learnt, not least being the role of inflation in a buoyant economy.

Big Shifts last week set to dominate markets long term

Last week saw a succession of fundamental shifts in how the global economy is working: inflation, China’s reopening, western politics, crypto, Climate Change, Tech stocks, and in Ukraine. These all have significant potential market implications.

Halloween, and a scary market outlook indeed – but not nearly as bad as you may fear!

Halloween is a great time to be scared about markets. They are inconsistent,  confused and uncertain, but the reality is even rising interest rates, inflation and trade wars sort themselves out - eventually. The real danger is how much worse bad politics and make a scary situation absolutely frightful.

Things are never as bad as you fear… are they?

The news looks bleak. A cataclysm of gloom is set to sink Europe and the UK – but, maybe things aren’t as bad as we think. Good news and a realisation things can get better could stabilize sentiment, and build a recovery base. Maybe?