Two parts this morning: What the Bank of England actually said, and The Big Lesson from the Ukraine War is simple: “Things are seldom as bad as we fear, but never as good as we hope.” Global geopolitics and markets have taken a knock, but will coalesce around whatever new global links emerge.
“Curiously, the only thing that went through the mind of the bowl of petunias was; Oh no, not again..”
Inflation is what inflation is.. Prices are still rising, Central Banks are watching, the US debt ceiling crisis will distract us all, and Donald Trump remains… “extraordinary”. All feels a bit unstable.
Don’t assume inflation is licked, don’t assume interest rates will stop rising, don’t assume there aren’t further bank failures to come, don’t assume politics and society will cope well, but don’t assume it’s all end of the world. In periods of financial uncertainty there is opportunity…
First Republic’s numbers show how close it came to failure – it’s a saga of stale management and bad banking, but reinforced by the pace of rumour and sigh on social media. Will it happen again? Blain’s Rules on Bank Investment may help you avoid the bad’uns..
Markets are thriving, but the news tone is miserable.. how does that happen? Markets aren’t pricing in a rising tide of political friction, plus rising inequality of wealth and opportunity – but these things ultimately matter.
Markets are taking a breather after the recent wobbles, but the threat board has never looked, well, more threatening! Relax. Go see Guys and Dolls instead and treat yourself to a great night out.. tomorrow it will be miserable again!
Just how vulnerable are banks to further contagion and crisis? With inflation still running loose, central banks still set to hike, while consumer and corporate pressures mount, the banking crisis may only just have started.
The “rescue” of Credit Suisse, thereby averting a European banking crisis, is getting less comment than the nixing of its $17.5 bln of CoCo Bonds. I’ve been warning about CoCos since 2011. Finally I got something right!
Central Banks face a mighty challenge persuading markets and depositors the banking system is stable. The war between chaos and order in markets has turned hot. At stake is the stability and future of the global economy. Anyone for the last few choc ice?
Credit Suisse is in the headlines for all the wrong reasons. Confidence in the bank is zero. The Swiss National Bank has provided a backstop, but a sale looks likely of the bank that just can’t get it right.