Expectations of early interest rate cuts are high, especially as recession signals are set to rise through Q1 2024. Will Central Banks stay the course and normalise interest rates, or will be take the easy option of further low interest rate distortion?
Jeremy Hunt tried hard to be interesting, but it was all a bit forgettable. An election is coming. How bad will it be? As for selling Natwest to fund UK growth – has Hunt actually considered the outlook for banks as the risk outlook deepens?
Would you rather lose your job to stagflation, recession or deflation? Argentina’s voters have gone for the populist option – good luck! OpenAI – I guess the genie is out the bottle.
The Gods of Chaos have brought together an alliance to bring down the West. If its not the weather, it will be Russia, Gas prices, the Middle East and Oil, or maybe the prime global commodity – Chips – is the next thing they will target. I'm staying long Gold.
Volatility in Treasury markets is setting off Global alarms. Economic numbers and earnings present a mixed picture of what’s occurring in terms of rates and inflation projections, but the reality is markets are highly vulnerable to rising uncertainty!
There is a crisis brewing – things are likely to get worse before they get better on the back of Political Dither, a Reverse Big Bang in the City of London, and the Escalation of the Middle East crisis threatens higher energy costs and inflation!
Events in Israel have been shocking. Its deliberate – Iran fermenting conflict to support its goal of Arab hegemony. It puts Saudi in an impossible position – and could move it closer to Russia and thus higher oil prices. Interesting times indeed. Hard Hats close.
The markets are panicking about bond yields. There is little to panic about. Higher rates will normalise the economy – but the commentariat loves to make a problem into a crisis. Y’day the BBC got it badly wrong, confusing the cost of new debt with debt service costs.
Who are we trying to fool? Rising bond yields, higher for longer rates, recession fears, crashing consumption, yet stocks believing earnings could still push them higher? Are we at risk of a realisation moment and a repeat of 1987 or maybe something worse?
Are current markets turning into a bad dream? There are so many reasons to be fearful, but giving into our terrors shows how driven by bias we are. A Hornet in the Bedroom Moment can make everything look bad. The reality is… probably not as bad as it looks!
