Category Europe

Populism averted, but only for a short-while

Macron’s victory has been hailed as a market plus, a win for Europe and common purpose, but it’s likely just a crisis averted, perhaps, for a few more years. Around the globe populism will likely be fanned by inflation, food and energy insecurity and become an increasingly destabilising force on markets.

The Crisis Approaches; Energy Security and the Nuclear option.

Energy and Food Security are intricately linked – and constitute the biggest and most immediate “no-see-um” threat markets have faced in decades. It’s time to get real about addressing energy transition and security, and climate change by accepting Nuclear energy is the most viable solution in the time left us.

The risks of appeasing Russia versus the risks of not.

Markets are nervous and set to tumble – spooked by $140 oil, soaring commodities, rising populism on inflation, and stagflationary risks. Some ask: “perhaps this could all be avoided by settling with Putin?” Forget the past at your peril. Appeasement is not the answer. Intimidation stops when you fight back. Now is the time for the west to step up the pressure.

All Eyes are on Ukraine, but perhaps the market should look elsewhere – to Turkey?

Ukraine has kicked off and its risk-off for markets as the reality there being no effective Western response kicks in. The implications for markets are huge – especially from the global geo-political perspective as nations decide how to play this. Turkey is caught in a classic currency-debt crisis which is now an opportunity for Erdogan and threat for the West and China.

The Unstable World of The Geopolitics of Energy

Ukraine is giving the media their next Covid-level dose of excitement, but highlights just how quickly events creep up on markets. Unwise decisions years ago by western governments in terms of energy security and global priorities have created the current crisis. It will have massive effects on energy transition, global growth and bodes ill for European stability.