How much Time and Money does the UK Need?
The UK’s finances depend on how long energy security remains compromised, and whether the new Truss government can convince markets to fund that time.
Blain's Morning Porridge
Financial Commentary for Smart People
Blain's Morning Porridge
Financial Commentary for Smart People
Category Europe
Things are never as bad as you fear… are they?
The news looks bleak. A cataclysm of gloom is set to sink Europe and the UK – but, maybe things aren’t as bad as we think. Good news and a realisation things can get better could stabilize sentiment, and build a recovery base. Maybe?
This is not a storm, a hurricane this way comes.
Readers of a sensitive nature may wish to take a chill pill before reading this morning’s Porridge comment. Remember, the sun will come up tomorrow. The market might not.
A winter of discontent will replace the glorious summer – and why railways matter!
As summer wends towards its end, a winter of populist discontent from left and right will make Europe increasingly fraxious. While the US economy will likely be on path to recovery – Europe will still be trending down.
Why are we so scared of Putin, Russia and an Italy debt meltdown?
Putin’s supposed cleverness haunts markets. How much harder will he squeeze Europe’s energy crisis? How will Russia change the geo-political order? Will Italy’s coming election be the crisis that breaks the Euro? We give Russia too much credit – it’s a weak nation that can only get weaker.
Winter is coming for Europe as Stagflation and Energy Crises are Set to Bite.
Winter is coming as soaring gas prices are set to bite across Europe. Putin’s energy insecurity strategy has proved his major success and could yet win him the Ukraine War. Stagflation is nailed on it Europe.
The Geopolitical No-See-Um threat posed by Chips may be less than that posed by Trump.
Chips are a critical component of global supply chains – there are significant geopolitical risks inherent in the concentration of semi-conductor production in Taiwan. However, an even bigger geopolitical risk may have been triggered by the FBI raiding Trump’s lair in Mar-a-Lago.
The ECB in Crisis? Compromise means buy Italy on the dips!
Lots of comment about imminent crisis in the ECB and European Bond Spreads. Relax. It’s a difficult circle to square, but the politics mean its more likely solutions will be found, and its buy Italy, Spain and Greece on the dips!
The Age of Divergence – Buy Dollars, Sell Europe
Markets and Geopolitics intersect in the Great Game being played in Ukraine. The West’s economies are diverging as a result of inflation shocks and looming recession. Divergence will play into Russian’s hands, and presents a clear market strategy: Buy Dollars and Sell Europe.
Porridge Extra – The ECB is panicking. Time to buy Italy?
The ECB is panicking. Time to buy Italy?