US Inflation looks to have been beaten, but that might not mean very much if the global economy is still headed into recession. Rates and consumption are a lagging problem for the markets, and there is a chance even strong economies will stall.
Markets have been far more positive than expected in 2023 – thus far. There is still much uncertainty out there, but what is the market missing? I have two particular under-played threats to watch – corporate debt and social unrest.
The debt ceiling crisis has lifted a cloud from markets, but we’re still looking for resolution on inflation, geopolitics and a host of other issues. Maybe the real issues are about valuations – which remain over-extraordinary.
There is a myth BRICS nations now exceed the GDP of the G7 West. It’s propaganda to boost a story of de-dollarisation, anti-G7 rhetoric and how China and its allies will create a stronger, more equal global market. It’s like watching Stags fight for dominance.
China will remain the driver of global growth as the West continues to slide. The economy is reopening swiftly, raising increased fears of de-dollarisation. It’s easy to get emotional, but the reality is its happening, get used to it, and figure out the outcomes. They may surprise you..
By some freakish temporal rift, a Morning Porridge from 10-years in the future was delivered into my email box last week – describing the monumental political and economic events of the last decade… Freaky eh? Who would expect such a thing…? It happens…
Q2 opens up with a new oil shock, but after the volatile start to 2023 what will roil markets next? Might it be further geopolitical instability?
It’s time to stop kidding ourselves. Brexit promised much but has been a disaster. The economy is contracting, investment in growth has collapsed, and there are no signs of Brexit bonuses. Time for a reset.
The UK’s Met Office says it was warmest year on record – what does that mean in terms of climate change opportunities in the long-run, and how the geopolitical threat mellows now that General Winter has abandoned Putin?
COP27 is about the politics of global energy – energy being the lifeblood of growth and prosperity. The Ukraine war’s outcome is also about energy: can Europe withstand Russia’s General Winter and coordinated assaults on its’ economy and political stability.