The UK’s Met Office says it was warmest year on record – what does that mean in terms of climate change opportunities in the long-run, and how the geopolitical threat mellows now that General Winter has abandoned Putin?
COP27 is about the politics of global energy – energy being the lifeblood of growth and prosperity. The Ukraine war’s outcome is also about energy: can Europe withstand Russia’s General Winter and coordinated assaults on its’ economy and political stability.
Halloween is a great time to be scared about markets. They are inconsistent, confused and uncertain, but the reality is even rising interest rates, inflation and trade wars sort themselves out - eventually. The real danger is how much worse bad politics and make a scary situation absolutely frightful.
Europe faces a crunch from energy and austerity, and is vulnerable to policy mistakes, disunity and disinformation
It’s too easy to write off Europe to the multiple threats of recession, low-growth, energy and inflation, but it has previously surprised us by its’ resilience! How will it fare with potential energy dislocation, fiscal and monetary risks and Russian disinformation? Can the Energy war be won?
The UK’s finances depend on how long energy security remains compromised, and whether the new Truss government can convince markets to fund that time.
The news looks bleak. A cataclysm of gloom is set to sink Europe and the UK – but, maybe things aren’t as bad as we think. Good news and a realisation things can get better could stabilize sentiment, and build a recovery base. Maybe?
Readers of a sensitive nature may wish to take a chill pill before reading this morning’s Porridge comment. Remember, the sun will come up tomorrow. The market might not.
As summer wends towards its end, a winter of populist discontent from left and right will make Europe increasingly fraxious. While the US economy will likely be on path to recovery – Europe will still be trending down.
Putin’s supposed cleverness haunts markets. How much harder will he squeeze Europe’s energy crisis? How will Russia change the geo-political order? Will Italy’s coming election be the crisis that breaks the Euro? We give Russia too much credit – it’s a weak nation that can only get weaker.
Winter is coming as soaring gas prices are set to bite across Europe. Putin’s energy insecurity strategy has proved his major success and could yet win him the Ukraine War. Stagflation is nailed on it Europe.