Who are we trying to fool? Rising bond yields, higher for longer rates, recession fears, crashing consumption, yet stocks believing earnings could still push them higher? Are we at risk of a realisation moment and a repeat of 1987 or maybe something worse?
Many market participants fear the rising quantum of Government Debt spells crisis across the globe. Tush and Nonsense. Debt is not the problem – markets exist to price risk. The crisis lies in economic management, and Political Risk!
Rishi Sunak’s U-Turn on Net Zero is politically expedient, but raises serious long-term questions about the investibility of the UK economy and its place in the world, but… hey, it might just win them some votes (just don’t let your kids know!)
It’s been a “meh” year for the UK markets, but they’re marginally up on the year. The outlook for a rusted economy, crashing discretionary spending, and an imminent housing collapse looks bad. As the UK electoral cycle kicks into high gear.. markets are in favour of change.
Are global economies heading for a soft or crash landing? Why the Republicans seeking to impeach President Biden have just played a brilliant short-term political hand, and what the ARM IPO tells us about gullibility in bubble times.
The Rugby World Cup is a reminder of all that is good, exciting and honest about 30 folk beating the crap out of each other. Enjoy the frenetic mayhem! Meanwhile, what is John Authers trying to tell us. And where are we this 9/11?
The G20 Gabfest in Delhi will boost Modi and paint India as the nation everyone wants to engage with, but it also hints at the end of the current global financial order of the G20, G7, The World Bank, IMF and WTO – No matter, we can build something better.
Markets are at an inflection point: bonds are more attractive, but credit risks rise in a deflationary bust? Or should higher oil prices remind us what triggered inflation, and raise the risk of consequential Stagflation!
The Hornet in the Bedroom Moment makes everything feel much, much worse… but its bad enough already.
Are current markets turning into a bad dream? There are so many reasons to be fearful, but giving into our terrors shows how driven by bias we are. A Hornet in the Bedroom Moment can make everything look bad. The reality is… probably not as bad as it looks!
Fitch threw a spanner into the works last night downgrading the US – but they were right to do so. Political risks in the US and UK – both are approaching peak electoral cycle crises points – are rising and the disinformation wars will ensure it gets… fruity.