Markets look set to rally strongly into Q2, but are they over-exuberant? The rise in deaths and new strains in Brazil hints the Covid war isn’t won yet, there are rising political risks in Europe, and widening wealth inequality is apparent everywhere. Just how solid are our expectations of stability, renewed global travel and recovery if Covid is here for the long-term?
You could not make this up; an unimaginably complex WW3 Techno-thriller unfolding as markets stumble and global supply chains hover on the edge of anarchy. On the other hand, maybe that’s just the way it was planned.
As vaccine wars hot up and markets worry about interest rates and central bank action, the theme of price distortion continues to unsettle valuations. One aspect of distortion is in the increasing weight being put on ESG metrics – which should be market positive, but look to be vulnerable to Woke-like “doubleplusungood” groupthink, potentially further distorting markets.
Europe's vaccine rollout is in tatters as a result of stupid politics and a desire to blame the UK, while the UK has just sent a very unsubtle message about Europe looking after itself. Its a silly playground squabble that needs to be resolved quickly, but at its heart is the usual European problem: Britain vs France.
Why is Europe suspending the AstraZeneca Vaccine? What’s the real story? And; The trick to investing in disruptive tech is to spot the solution to a need, rather than an answer looking for a question.
Seven factors to understand the market shift that’s roiling markets; bond yields and inflation, distortion, recovery, leverage, tech vs reality, exuberance, and value.
