The Bank and The Fed have served notice they will remain vigilant – higher for longer! Markets would be wrong to expect early easing. Wage Inflation and Energy remain very real threats over the medium term – it may trigger volatility as markets understand the new reality.
Are global economies heading for a soft or crash landing? Why the Republicans seeking to impeach President Biden have just played a brilliant short-term political hand, and what the ARM IPO tells us about gullibility in bubble times.
The Rugby World Cup is a reminder of all that is good, exciting and honest about 30 folk beating the crap out of each other. Enjoy the frenetic mayhem! Meanwhile, what is John Authers trying to tell us. And where are we this 9/11?
Nvidia confirms the AI everything bubble! FOMO means everyone will play catch up! There is a growing divergence likely as inflation, growth and interest rates spells deep trouble for Europe and the ECB, while the USA recovers and the UK muddles through.
Dangerous times ahead as politicians weigh up the pros of sacrificing long-term climate and environmental goals for short-term electoral gains.
COP27 is about the politics of global energy – energy being the lifeblood of growth and prosperity. The Ukraine war’s outcome is also about energy: can Europe withstand Russia’s General Winter and coordinated assaults on its’ economy and political stability.
Well, that was a fun week… but the UK’s travails are the tip of the iceberg of market pain facing the global economy. More political, geopolitical, liquidity and leverage driven crises are coming as markets reverse out the QE era. Don’t Panic!
Europe faces a crunch from energy and austerity, and is vulnerable to policy mistakes, disunity and disinformation
It’s too easy to write off Europe to the multiple threats of recession, low-growth, energy and inflation, but it has previously surprised us by its’ resilience! How will it fare with potential energy dislocation, fiscal and monetary risks and Russian disinformation? Can the Energy war be won?
The news looks bleak. A cataclysm of gloom is set to sink Europe and the UK – but, maybe things aren’t as bad as we think. Good news and a realisation things can get better could stabilize sentiment, and build a recovery base. Maybe?
Putin’s supposed cleverness haunts markets. How much harder will he squeeze Europe’s energy crisis? How will Russia change the geo-political order? Will Italy’s coming election be the crisis that breaks the Euro? We give Russia too much credit – it’s a weak nation that can only get weaker.