Category distortion

The Laws of Mean Reversion have begun their Summer Offensive

We’re officially in a bear market, but markets are still massively overvalued. The laws of Mean Reversion are immutable – some stocks are going lower. Inflation, Bond Markets and Confidence are all flashing danger signals.

How many reasons to be miserable about markets do you need?

It’s going to be a testing week for markets as a whole slew of negatives, challenges and no-see-ums threaten to overturn everything. It couldn’t look worse… unless of course you remember my key market mantra (read on), and that the sun usually comes up tomorrow. Happy Valentines.. 

If you are looking for truth in markets, in bonds there are fewer lies.

The Stock Market Rollercoaster will continue a while longer, but a decisive divergence point is coming! Corporate debt is likely to crack on rising rates, price distortion, forgotten risk metrics, and rising defaults. It will signal the perilous financial health of some sectors – bursting the current bubble violently. Anyone for the last few choc-ices?

2021 – That was the Year that Was…

“The future may dimly be perceived through the veil of the past”, sounds like bad poetry, but has a point. The confusions and conflabulations that characterised 2021 will likely set the tone for what’s coming – what were the key themes of 2021? Best to understand them before trying to fathom what comes next.

Guessing it won’t be as good as we hope, nor as bad as we fear…

Markets are roiled by lockdowns and approaching holidays. Already the guessing season has begun – with predictions running all the way from Gloomy to Dire. Central Banks will be anxious to be seen to be doing the right thing – which probably means more of the same. And investors? Delusional or exploiting the delusion of others.