Two parts this morning: What the Bank of England actually said, and The Big Lesson from the Ukraine War is simple: “Things are seldom as bad as we fear, but never as good as we hope.” Global geopolitics and markets have taken a knock, but will coalesce around whatever new global links emerge.
China will remain the driver of global growth as the West continues to slide. The economy is reopening swiftly, raising increased fears of de-dollarisation. It’s easy to get emotional, but the reality is its happening, get used to it, and figure out the outcomes. They may surprise you..
Analysts and big money say it’s time to reinvest in China on the back of growth and rising prosperity. But global headlines point to rising geopolitical confrontation which could see China sanctioned, or even a hot war with the US. The real issue may be China’s rapidly declining demographics.
The UK’s Met Office says it was warmest year on record – what does that mean in terms of climate change opportunities in the long-run, and how the geopolitical threat mellows now that General Winter has abandoned Putin?
Stock markets may be crashing on inflation fears, but watch the Putin Xi summit in Samarkand tomorrow as the critical event this week. Is China prepared to reinforce Putin’s failure – and what does that mean in terms of risk?
The news looks bleak. A cataclysm of gloom is set to sink Europe and the UK – but, maybe things aren’t as bad as we think. Good news and a realisation things can get better could stabilize sentiment, and build a recovery base. Maybe?
Putin’s supposed cleverness haunts markets. How much harder will he squeeze Europe’s energy crisis? How will Russia change the geo-political order? Will Italy’s coming election be the crisis that breaks the Euro? We give Russia too much credit – it’s a weak nation that can only get weaker.
Winter is coming as soaring gas prices are set to bite across Europe. Putin’s energy insecurity strategy has proved his major success and could yet win him the Ukraine War. Stagflation is nailed on it Europe.
Inflation is increasing the burden of the UK’s debt, but it’s been well managed and should not impact as heavily as it might in other highly indebted nations. We can probably afford to spend more – especially in Defence, the primary duty of any state.
Macron’s victory has been hailed as a market plus, a win for Europe and common purpose, but it’s likely just a crisis averted, perhaps, for a few more years. Around the globe populism will likely be fanned by inflation, food and energy insecurity and become an increasingly destabilising force on markets.
