Category Currencies

As Always It’s All About Bonds – They Warn of Considerable Risk to Markets

The threat list to global markets lengthens, but the Truth will be found in the bond markets. Like inflation and rising rates, the effects of a bond market slide are lagging – It’s going to take other financial assets time to catch up on the bond crash!

Spidey Senses a’Tingle – does something wicked this way come?

Who are we trying to fool? Rising bond yields, higher for longer rates, recession fears, crashing consumption, yet stocks believing earnings could still push them higher? Are we at risk of a realisation moment and a repeat of 1987 or maybe something worse?

Fed Hikes, but how big is the recession risk?

The market has chosen to read the Fed 25pb hike as a positive sign we’re on the glide path to a soft landing – but what does the market know? The charts and common sense increasingly scream recession. Take your pick: deflationary bust or stagflationary crisis?

The Long and the Short and the Tall of trying to figure out investment strategies.

Markets are focused on the immediate debt-ceiling crisis, and the short-term game of guessing rates vs inflation. Down the line are the bigger challenges of the medium and long-term: issues we need to be investing in now to garner long-run returns or just to survive!

Forget the multiple perils of markets – go buy a ticket to Guys and Dolls instead!

Markets are taking a breather after the recent wobbles, but the threat board has never looked, well, more threatening! Relax. Go see Guys and Dolls instead and treat yourself to a great night out.. tomorrow it will be miserable again!