What does £5.40 a coffee tell us about the economy? That inflation is sticky. Do we face a stagflationary bust or a reflationary boom? Either will mean Central Banks have failed. At the heart of today’s economy are a succession of issues to resolve – not least is the need for a reset on corporate behaviours to drive stable growth.
Bitcoin’s recent gains are about as relevant as Liz Truss. But banks, earnings, inflation, rates and investment remain critical. Now shadow banking investment is under threat – which isn’t going to help.
Markets love drama… from the next corupto-coin exchange to collapse, rising interest rate threats, and riots in China in the face of a Covid meltdown. But drama and reality seldom coincide – events are more prosaic!
Elections are a wonderful way to unravel the risks of political incompetency by letting the people, rather than politicians, decide. Meanwhile, the collapse of another thing in Crypto comes as no surprise. If it did, consider a career change.
Crypto has fallen 30% through May. The headlines about scams, illegality, and outright theft obscure the key facts; its overly complex, vulnerable and doesn’t actually do anything we can’t already do better. It’s terribly clever, but a pointless, busted bubble.
I’d like to introduce you to my latest theory on markets: the D-Jay Wave, a 35-year recurring cycle of irrational market exuberance. I have carefully and diligently researched this over a couple of pints.. It’s therefore better underpinned than most SPACs or Disruptive Tech funds. (Glossy pitchdeck not available.)
Tech stocks have taken a thumping this year – a well-timed reality check or a threat to bring down the whole market? Probably time for a clean out of all the speculative, improbable and fantastical perpetual motion machines that beguiled IPO and SPAC investors during the easy money era. Reality bites and it’s time to get real..
Crypto currencies have confused the way we think about money and wealth. Its deliberate. It helps layer the crypto narrative they are modern and somehow better than fiat money. It’s fake news. Crypto is full of inconsistencies and outright bullsh*t – it’s time regulators did their jobs!
The Crypto end-phase is full on… but will likely see further incredible moves as the last “greater fools” are enticed into to thinking it’s a buying opportunity. Good luck to them! As the crypto-mythosphere of delusional technobabble evaporates, it’s accompanied by a smell the coffee moment in SPACs, Disruptive Tech, and the other pricing anomalies so blindingly apparent to anyone with an erg of common sense watching these bubblesque markets. Vol will roil markets generally as these dominoes tumble…..
Meanwhile.. what future the City of London with 50% of us likely to continue working for home…..?
As the Federal Reserve wakes up to “elevated relative risks” and the rest of us scream “bubble”, the real questions are about real value. Why is a Bitcoin worth as much as Renaissance Art? Why is Dogecoin the top performing asset off the year when everyone knows it's a joke? And when are people going to drink the proverbial coffee?