Category Covid

Stock Momentum, Covid and Big Tech

Stock markets feel like they are running out of momentum – but that should not lead to fears of a no-see-um crash, rather a more fundamental assessment of the reasons why? In the UK, Plan B – National Economic Suicide by winter Lockdowns – looks on the cards. And, despite all the wonders of Big Tech and promises about how much better it makes our lives – most of it is pretty pants.

Inflation, Covid, Central Banks and Politics – about half the things to really worry about…

As markets shake off their summer slumbers, what should we be worrying about? Lots..! From real vs transitory inflation arguments, the long-term economic consequences of Covid, the future for Central Banking unable to unravel its Gordian knot of monetary experimentation, and the prospects for rising political instability in the US and Europe.

The Pandemic doesn’t need to slaughter us in hordes to create ongoing economic mayhem.

Markets and data have been posting strong numbers, but all around are warnings on future outlook problems. Politicians are keen to claim victory over the pandemic, but the science increasingly points to Covid becoming a very long-lived problem and long-term threat to global activity

Freedom? Markets and Climate Chaos

Its “Freedom Day” in the UK, but it feels same as, same as. Bond markets look stressed, but freak weather is raising the probability government intervention dwarfing the scale of the pandemic may become necessary. There will not be a gradual, ordered progression to a new higher temperature climate.  Instead… the reality looks like high-cost chaotic freak-weather events becoming increasingly common.  The cost could hit trillions.

Freedom delayed, momentum stalls, bonds rally and the EU issuance programme kicks off

As the US Fed meets to discuss rates and assess the real inflation threat, the UK Covid-freedom delay is likely to stall recovery momentum and add to the economic pain being felt at the micro-level. Markets are pricing for a transitory inflation bloom, but what is the real inflation outlook and what will it mean for bond markets as the European Union launches Europe’s fully mutualised funding programme – don’t anyone tell the Germans its happened!