Markets are focused on the immediate debt-ceiling crisis, and the short-term game of guessing rates vs inflation. Down the line are the bigger challenges of the medium and long-term: issues we need to be investing in now to garner long-run returns or just to survive!
Markets are taking a breather after the recent wobbles, but the threat board has never looked, well, more threatening! Relax. Go see Guys and Dolls instead and treat yourself to a great night out.. tomorrow it will be miserable again!
The Fed tries to be dovish to calm market fears, but banking fears and inflationary threats on the economy may lead us somewhere new: A Stagflationary Bust!
Swift Action by the Fed and around the globe has averted a major tech catastrophe, but the Silicon Valley Bank debacle highlights failure and further crisis to come. Hard Hats Stay On!
There is nothing as dangerous for markets as directionless markets and a deep threat board. Place your chips accordingly…
The big story in the market has been the humbling of Indian conglomerate Adani. Who could have guessed? But the real issue isn’t that a company may have fooled the market over its value, but that the market never worked out how improbable the valuations were. Time to check up on risk management!
Around the globe everyone thinks inflation is beaten. It may well be, but the consequences will persist. Interest rates may not “pivot” the way market optimists hope, with profound implications for equities and bonds. We are into a new market cycle of normalised rates and corporate fundamentals. All-in-all, that’s a good thing for growth!
Watch the Bond Markets. In bonds there is truth. Brutal, uncompromising, painful truth. When the crisis comes, it will hit bond markets first.
Halloween is a great time to be scared about markets. They are inconsistent, confused and uncertain, but the reality is even rising interest rates, inflation and trade wars sort themselves out - eventually. The real danger is how much worse bad politics and make a scary situation absolutely frightful.
In Bonds There is Truth – but until Real bond yields turn positive they remain financially repressive. If Central Banks “pivot” from tightening rates to address inflation too early, markets will remain fundamentally distorted.
