Category China

Blain’s Morning Porridge China

What’s the real story in China?

While the rest of the world hiked to fight inflation, China has embarked a sprint to reopen the economy; easing rates, mortgages, property lending and loans. The question is can it succeed when demographics, trade and the laws of growth may have already moved against them?

China, China economy, demographics, President Xi
Bill Blain
January 27, 2023
3

Blain’s Morning Porridge China cryptocurrencies Tech

Binance, China, Covid and Tech Value – what a mix!

Markets love drama… from the next corupto-coin exchange to collapse, rising interest rate threats, and riots in China in the face of a Covid meltdown. But drama and reality seldom coincide – events are more prosaic!

Big Tech, Binance, China, Covid, Value Stocks
Bill Blain
November 29, 2022
5

Blain’s Morning Porridge China Fed Recession

Fed rocks market, but Recession and China’s Surveillance State are long-term bigger risks

The Fed roiled markets over the pace and scale of rate hikes, but ultimately markets are about growth. The big issues were not thinking about enough are global recession, slowing trade, and the threats China’s evolution into a Surveillance State raise for future growth.

China, Fed, Jerome Powell, recession, Surviellance State
Bill Blain
November 3, 2022
5

Blain’s Morning Porridge Capitalism central banks China corporate debt Currencies Debt distortion Economy Europe Financial Crisis geopolitics Global Growth Inflation

Halloween, and a scary market outlook indeed – but not nearly as bad as you may fear!

Halloween is a great time to be scared about markets. They are inconsistent, confused and uncertain, but the reality is even rising interest rates, inflation and trade wars sort themselves out - eventually. The real danger is how much worse bad politics and make a scary situation absolutely frightful.

Blain’s Morning Porridge China

Where is China going with its new economy?

When the fact change, change strategy. The enthronement of Xi Jinping represents such a moment – and comfirms the big theme for coming decades: The Middle Kingdom vs the West.

CCP, China, Xi Jingpin
Bill Blain
October 25, 2022
6

Blain’s Morning Porridge China defence Energy Gas geopolitics Market Crash Russia UK USA

China and Russia – what will Putin get?

Stock markets may be crashing on inflation fears, but watch the Putin Xi summit in Samarkand tomorrow as the critical event this week. Is China prepared to reinforce Putin’s failure – and what does that mean in terms of risk?

Ukraine War
Bill Blain
September 14, 2022
15

Blain’s Morning Porridge Capitalism China Climate Change Economy Europe Financial Crisis Markets Political risk Politics Trump USA

The Geopolitical No-See-Um threat posed by Chips may be less than that posed by Trump.

Chips are a critical component of global supply chains – there are significant geopolitical risks inherent in the concentration of semi-conductor production in Taiwan. However, an even bigger geopolitical risk may have been triggered by the FBI raiding Trump’s lair in Mar-a-Lago.

Chip production, Semi-conductors, Trump Risk
Bill Blain
August 10, 2022
20

Blain’s Morning Porridge Capitalism central banks China Economy Energy Inflation stagflation

Confusing Markets: be confident when others are fearful…

So many contradictions abound in current markets, but it’s possible to cut through the noise to discern some probable direction. The old adage of being confident while others are fearful looks one way to approach the current confusion.

Post Pandemic Economy, Post Pandemic Recovery
Bill Blain
August 8, 2022
2

Blain’s Morning Porridge China Inflation

How long and deep is Inflation, and how close is China to a Banking Crisis?

Blain’s Morning Porridge – July 13th 2022: How long and deep is Inflation, and how close is China to a…

China, Inflation
Bill Blain
July 13, 2022
12

Blain’s Morning Porridge Banks China HSBC

HSBC – the Anomalous Bank

Calls to break up HSBC to realise the value of its Asian franchise are a critical moment for the bank as it pays the costs of being too big, too bureaucratic and for the inability of management to spot its critical weakness…..

Balloons and Common Sense. Lots of improbable things to consider over breakfast.
February 6, 2023
Rugby, Balloons and Employment Data – so much to consider this morning, but what this market needs a dose of common sense, understanding of central banks, and catharsis. Real interest rates and normalisation will provide solid foundations for real growth and recovery – not market froth!Read More »
Adani – What does it mean for markets? A risk crisis is coming!
February 3, 2023
The big story in the market has been the humbling of Indian conglomerate Adani. Who could have guessed? But the real issue isn’t that a company may have fooled the market over its value, but that the market never worked out how improbable the valuations were. Time to check up on risk management!Read More »
The End of An Era in Aviation: Was the Jumbo the Best Plane Ever?
February 2, 2023
Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 2nd 2023 – The End of An Era in Aviation: Was the Jumbo the Best Plane Ever? “I was listening. Listening to the rain. I was hearing. I was hearing something else.” This morning: The last baby Jumbo has fledged the nest. In their day, 747s were simply stunning. Today’s aviation markets are very different and …Read More »
Euphoric Hasty Markets are Mispriced – Steady and Calm – Consider Tesla.
January 31, 2023
Markets have a habit of getting over-excited. They get FOMO and become over hasty. Although the outlook is improving, there is certainly little to justify some of the more speculative hype dominating market moves. Time a bit of rational thinking and common sense – consider Tesla as an example of misplaced hopes.Read More »
What’s the real story in China?
January 27, 2023
While the rest of the world hiked to fight inflation, China has embarked a sprint to reopen the economy; easing rates, mortgages, property lending and loans. The question is can it succeed when demographics, trade and the laws of growth may have already moved against them?Read More »