Category China

Blain’s Morning Porridge China defence Energy Gas geopolitics Market Crash Russia UK USA

China and Russia – what will Putin get?

Stock markets may be crashing on inflation fears, but watch the Putin Xi summit in Samarkand tomorrow as the critical event this week. Is China prepared to reinforce Putin’s failure – and what does that mean in terms of risk?

Ukraine War
Bill Blain
September 14, 2022
15

Blain’s Morning Porridge Capitalism China Climate Change Economy Europe Financial Crisis Markets Political risk Politics Trump USA

The Geopolitical No-See-Um threat posed by Chips may be less than that posed by Trump.

Chips are a critical component of global supply chains – there are significant geopolitical risks inherent in the concentration of semi-conductor production in Taiwan. However, an even bigger geopolitical risk may have been triggered by the FBI raiding Trump’s lair in Mar-a-Lago.

Chip production, Semi-conductors, Trump Risk
Bill Blain
August 10, 2022
20

Blain’s Morning Porridge Capitalism central banks China Economy Energy Inflation stagflation

Confusing Markets: be confident when others are fearful…

So many contradictions abound in current markets, but it’s possible to cut through the noise to discern some probable direction. The old adage of being confident while others are fearful looks one way to approach the current confusion.

Post Pandemic Economy, Post Pandemic Recovery
Bill Blain
August 8, 2022
2

Blain’s Morning Porridge China Inflation

How long and deep is Inflation, and how close is China to a Banking Crisis?

Blain’s Morning Porridge – July 13th 2022: How long and deep is Inflation, and how close is China to a…

China, Inflation
Bill Blain
July 13, 2022
12

Blain’s Morning Porridge Banks China HSBC

HSBC – the Anomalous Bank

Calls to break up HSBC to realise the value of its Asian franchise are a critical moment for the bank as it pays the costs of being too big, too bureaucratic and for the inability of management to spot its critical weakness…..

Blain’s Morning Porridge China Europe Russia USA

The Russia and Chinese Crises facing markets are of different magnitudes

Ultimately the economic history books will record Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a speedbump, and perhaps a triumph for a United Europe. The consequences of an Economic War with China could be much, much more significant!

China, Covid, Lockdowns, Russia, Ukraine War
Bill Blain
April 28, 2022
7

Blain’s Morning Porridge Capitalism China Economy Energy geopolitics Russia Ukraine

Ukraine – What will the Long-Term Look Like?

Who really knows what is happening in Ukraine, or what the players are thinking? The long-term economic consequences could be huge, marking the moment the post Cold-War global consensus and order breaks down. The potential consequences include social and political instability, war, famine, and who knows what else.

Global Economy, Irrational Markets, Ukraine
Bill Blain
March 22, 2022
4

Blain’s Morning Porridge China Europe geopolitics Russia USA

All Eyes are on Ukraine, but perhaps the market should look elsewhere – to Turkey?

Ukraine has kicked off and its risk-off for markets as the reality there being no effective Western response kicks in. The implications for markets are huge – especially from the global geo-political perspective as nations decide how to play this. Turkey is caught in a classic currency-debt crisis which is now an opportunity for Erdogan and threat for the West and China.

Turkey, Ukraine, WW3
Bill Blain
February 23, 2022
20

Blain’s Morning Porridge China Energy Europe Russia USA

The Unstable World of The Geopolitics of Energy

Ukraine is giving the media their next Covid-level dose of excitement, but highlights just how quickly events creep up on markets. Unwise decisions years ago by western governments in terms of energy security and global priorities have created the current crisis. It will have massive effects on energy transition, global growth and bodes ill for European stability.

Blain’s Morning Porridge China Monetary Policy Pandemic

China easing rates triggers economic divergence, and highlight potential distortion risks

As the West reopens, China’s lockdowns remain draconian. It has eased rates on the back of growth concerns. The result is growing monetary divergence, and China looks set to go down the same monetary experimentation route the West is now trying to reverse.

China monetary policy, Pandemic Divergence
Bill Blain
January 20, 2022
3

The UK crisis: Questions that Must be Asked: How was it allowed to happen?
September 27, 2022
The UK confidence crisis is not over yet. Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng is saying nothing, hoping for stability. The Bank of England finds itself providing top cover by its willingness to hike rates. The Treasury Select Committee should be asking what advice the OBR, Treasury, The Bank of England and the Gilts Office gave Kwarteng.Read More »
The Everything Sell Off – Triggers and Consequences
September 27, 2022
Global Markets have nosedived – the UK’s confidence crisis is one trigger alongside rising recession risks, crashing consumer spending and host of indications we ain’t near done on higher interest rates as inflation becomes embedded into economies and dollar strength continues unabated.Read More »
The UK’s Monumental Policy Mistake – how bad will it get?
September 26, 2022
What a mess. Kwasi Kwarteng’s Special Fiscal Operation failed to stabilise UK markets and has zero prospect of driving growth. The new government stumbled at the first jump. How bad will it get? What are the implications? Who is next for the Chancellor’s job?Read More »
Changing the narrative, one lie at a time
September 22, 2022
The biggest crisis the West faces may not be the challenges of energy, confidence, inflation and growth, but restoring trust in the narrative by cutting out the disinformation planted by our enemies. Time for some leadership.Read More »
The New Truss Trickle-Down Economic Plan Won’t Work, But Might Boost Markets
September 21, 2022
The new Truss/Kwarteng grand plan to create a UK High Growth High Wage economy boils down to trickle-down economics, which simply don’t work. They won’t restore the economy, but they may, perversely, boost markets.Read More »