Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions are great fun, but the reality is 2024 is going to be about Elections, Oil and Energy Prices, Conflict and how China plays these three forces. China will dominate 2024 – for all the wrong reasons.
The Gods of Chaos have brought together an alliance to bring down the West. If its not the weather, it will be Russia, Gas prices, the Middle East and Oil, or maybe the prime global commodity – Chips – is the next thing they will target. I'm staying long Gold.
Biden’s trip to Israel and Jordan vs Putin’s to Beijing - which will prove more meaningful? Meanwhile, Italy’s latest tax cuts and spending plans mimic the Trusterf*ck, but Meloni seems to have got away with it – for how long?
The G20 Gabfest in Delhi will boost Modi and paint India as the nation everyone wants to engage with, but it also hints at the end of the current global financial order of the G20, G7, The World Bank, IMF and WTO – No matter, we can build something better.
The news from China is unremittingly bad – a cataclysm of economic distress and woe. Combined with concerns on law and transparency, China is now off many investment lists. Yet it’s still a growing economy with a massive middle class of consumers. There are opportunities.
Don’t underestimate the effects of the natural cycle of the year on markets – the pressure to perform in the face of increasingly uncertain news flow is driven by a sense of opportunities and an awareness of time – which for 2023 are running short.
Jackson Hole, BRICS, Inflation, Bond Yields, the Dollar, AI and so many more things to worry about – but what does it really boil down to? Who will be trading with who, and what will be driving growth?
US Inflation looks to have been beaten, but that might not mean very much if the global economy is still headed into recession. Rates and consumption are a lagging problem for the markets, and there is a chance even strong economies will stall.
Markets have been far more positive than expected in 2023 – thus far. There is still much uncertainty out there, but what is the market missing? I have two particular under-played threats to watch – corporate debt and social unrest.
China and the West are diverging into different economic camps. It stings both ways – Western companies trying to build new but more costly secure supply chains, while the Chinese economy struggles with lost orders. Can there be an accommodation? China and the West are diverging into different economic camps. It stings both ways – Western companies trying to build new but more costly secure supply chains, while the Chinese economy struggles with lost orders. Can there be an accommodation?