Category central banks

Interest Rate Scenarios: Stick with the Normalisation Cure, or another Puff of QE Skunk?

Expectations of early interest rate cuts are high, especially as recession signals are set to rise through Q1 2024. Will Central Banks stay the course and normalise interest rates, or will be take the easy option of further low interest rate distortion?

As Always It’s All About Bonds – They Warn of Considerable Risk to Markets

The threat list to global markets lengthens, but the Truth will be found in the bond markets. Like inflation and rising rates, the effects of a bond market slide are lagging – It’s going to take other financial assets time to catch up on the bond crash!

Spidey Senses a’Tingle – does something wicked this way come?

Who are we trying to fool? Rising bond yields, higher for longer rates, recession fears, crashing consumption, yet stocks believing earnings could still push them higher? Are we at risk of a realisation moment and a repeat of 1987 or maybe something worse?

Higher for Longer – Markets Could Struggle With the New Reality

The Bank and The Fed have served notice they will remain vigilant – higher for longer! Markets would be wrong to expect early easing. Wage Inflation and Energy remain very real threats over the medium term – it may trigger volatility as markets understand the new reality.